Load forecasting based on multi-core learning Support Vector Machine (SVM)

Abstract

The development of smart grids requires enhanced data integration, robust risk assessment, and dynamic response optimization. In this paper, a multi-core learning Support Vector Machine (SVM) model is presented to improve the accuracy and efficiency of load and photovoltaic output forecasting. The model leverages kernel function optimization and parallel computing frameworks to handle large-scale data efficiently. Additionally, a comprehensive risk assessment system is developed to quantify risks such as overvoltage, undervoltage, line overload, and load loss in distribution networks. An adaptive genetic algorithm-based risk control model is also proposed, optimized in two stages—day-ahead and intra-day—to achieve minimal comprehensive risk through real-time adjustments in distributed power output and electric vehicle charging strategies. Furthermore, an integrated virtual synchronous control online verification method for source-network-load-storage is introduced, enhancing system response speed and control accuracy. These innovations collectively provide a solid theoretical foundation and technical support for the efficient and safe operation of smart grids, addressing the increasing demands of modern energy systems.