Local Economic Voting and the Agricultural Boom in Argentina, 2007–2015

Abstract

This article investigates the effect of local economic conditions on voting behavior by focusing on the export-oriented agricultural areas of Argentina during the commodities boom. It assesses the marginal effect of export wealth on electoral outcomes by studying the impact of soybean production, the main Argentine export product during this period. The combination of rising agricultural prices and a salient national tax on exports allows us to evaluate how wealth and tax policy shape local electoral behavior. This study relies on a spatial econometric analysis of the vote across Argentine departments for the 2007–15 period, along with qualitative evidence from interviews and a descriptive analysis of government appointments.

Protests of Abundance: Distributive Conflict Over Agricultural Rents During the Commodities Boom in Argentina, 2003–2013

“…The weight of political influence-constant in our study-is highlighted by the victory of the first democratically elected right-wing president of Argentina in 2015. Farmers were a fundamental constituency of his electoral coalition, and he rewarded their support by eliminating export restrictions and appointing farmers to crucial policymaking positions (Mangonnet et al, 2018).…”

“…Argentine farmers lacked political influence since democratization in 1983 until the election of the first right-wing democratic president in 2015 (Mangonnet et al, 2018). In this period, farmers lacked ties to political parties or official consultation mechanisms and they were organizationally fragmented into four nationwide rural associations (Fairfield, 2011).…”

Estado y alianzas…, cuarenta años después Elementos para pensar el giro a la derecha en Argentina

“…3 Se trata del conflicto iniciado por la oposición de las principales entidades que agrupan a los productores rurales a la modificación del régimen de derechos a las exportaciones de granos (conocidas por "retenciones"), decidida por el gobierno de Cristina Fernández de Kirchner en marzo de 2008, en previsión de un alza del precio internacional de esas commodities. El conflicto produjo una ruptura profunda entre el sector agrario y el peronismo nacional-popular, que se expresó más tarde a nivel electoral (Mangonnet, Murillo y Rubio, 2018).…”

“…Como muestran Mangonnet, Murillo y Rubio (2018), la coalición Cambiemos fue la gran depositaria del voto opositor en la zona núcleo de producción agraria -el sector geográfico más rico-en las presidenciales de 2015 (ver Mapa 1). Su claro antagonismo con el kirchnerismo la diferenciaba de otras opciones opositoras.…”

The successful building of a conservative party in Argentina

“…Since then, Kirchnerism changed its primary adversaries, who went from being the interna-tional organizations promoting neoliberalism to the domestic economic elites (Casullo, 2019). Some business sectors increasingly distanced themselves from Kirchnerism and simultaneously approached the PRO (Leiras & Cruzalegui, 2009;Mangonnet, Murillo, & Rubio, 2018). Throughout the conflict, on many occasions, the PRO expressed its support for rural corporations.…”