Local Heterogeneities in Population Growth and Decline. A Spatial Analysis of Italian Municipalities

Neighbourhood effects and determinants of population changes in Italy: A spatial perspective

“…Indeed, the local scale (municipal level) should be adopted to ensure a better understanding of population spatial heterogeneity and spatiotemporal variability, as has been demonstrated by some recent studies on Italian demography conducted at the territorial level (Caltabiano et al, 2019;Salvati et al, 2020). In Benassi et al (2023), we showed the distribution of the municipalities in Italy by the levels of growth/decline in four subsequent periods of time covering the last 40 years . The number of municipalities that have experienced either a light (annual growth rate per 1000 between ≥ −8.0 and ≤ −2.0) or an intense (≤ −8.0) demographic decline has increased over time.…”

“…These processes can lead to a sort of vicious circle of (demographic) marginality that is, to some extent, auto-propulsive and spatially dependent. Benassi et al (2023) studied the evolution of municipalities in Italy by analysing their levels of growth/decline in four subsequent periods of time over the last 40 years . They found that the number of municipalities that experienced a light or an intense process of demographic decline increased over time through the dynamics of spatial contagion.…”

“…They also showed that the index increased from 0.401 in 1981-1991 to 0.436 in 2011-2019. Based on the local version of the Moran's I index (Anselin, 1995), Benassi et al (2023) also classified each municipality according to their growth rate and the growth rate of the surrounding municipalities, and found an acceleration of spatial clustering. More specifically, they observed that in the last period they considered (2011-2019), the urban and the metropolitan spatial plots expanded, especially in the centre-north, while the areas where municipalities had low growth rates were surrounded by areas where municipalities were distributed more widely, but were circumscribed by precise geographical logics: e.g., the inland territories of Sardinia and Sicily, the Apennine ridge, and the inland areas of Liguria and Emilia near the Apennines and Alpine border areas.…”

“…Italy appears to be characterised by a dual spatial demographic system in which some territorial contexts-typically the large urban centres and their surrounding areas, especially those located in the north of the country-still attract populations from other Italian contexts (internal migration) as well as from abroad (international migration), resulting in systematic demographic growth (Benassi et al, 2019;Strozza et al, 2016); while other territorial contexts, including an increasing number of medium-sized and small municipalities that are located far from the large urban centres and/or that have a low level of accessibility-typically located in southern Italy, and very often in mountainous or inland areas-are characterised by a systematic loss of population due to a negative natural balance and a zero or, as is the case in most of these municipalities, a negative migration balance (Benassi et al, 2021(Benassi et al, , 2023Reynaud et al, 2020). Thus, in Italy, the concept of spatial diffusion is highly relevant (Morrill et al, 1988).…”

Evaluation of Territorial Capacity for Development: Population and Employment

“…The Spanish [1][2][3][4][5][6] and international [7][8][9][10] academic literature has widely studied rural depopulation and its social and economic consequences. This issue has also been investigated from different disciplines and perspectives, such as demography [9,[11][12][13][14][15]; geography and rural-urban spatial analysis [10,16,17]; employment and territorial development [8,[18][19][20][21][22][23]; urbanisation and land transfer for developing the regional economy [24]; as a political [14] and social challenge [25]; and public policies and services [23,26]. But the problem can also be explored from the urban-rural digital divide [27] and social media use as a way to help improve organisation performance [28].…”