Local Perception of Risk to Livelihoods in the Semi-Arid Landscape of Southern Africa

Abstract

The United Nations and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change deem many regions of southern Africa as vulnerable landscapes due to changing climatic regimes, ecological conditions, and low adaptive capacity. Typically in highly vulnerable regions, multiple livelihood strategies are employed to enable sustainable development. In Botswana, livelihood strategies have diversified over time to include tourism and other non-agricultural activities. While such diversification and development have been studied, little is known about how locals perceive livelihood risks. This article analyzes perceptions of risk through a risk hazards framework. During the summer of 2010, 330 surveys were completed within seven villages in northern Botswana and the Caprivi Strip of Namibia. During the survey respondents were asked to list the biggest threats/challenges to their livelihoods. Responses were grouped into categories of risk according to the capital assets on which livelihoods depend: natural, physical, financial, human, and social. A risk mapping procedure was utilized, for which indices of severity, incidence, and risk were calculated. It is hypothesized that people’s perception of risk is directly dependent on environmental conditions and employment status of the household. Results indicate that problems related to natural and financial assets are the greatest source of risk to livelihoods. Furthermore, flood, drought, and other measures of climate variability are perceived as influential, typically negatively, to livelihood strategies

Farmers’ Risk Perception towards Climate Change: A Case of the GAP-Şanlıurfa Region, Turkey

“…It means that a one-unit increase of non-agricultural power decreases the odds of having risk perception by 60.3%. It is hypothesized that people's perception of risk is directly dependent on environmental conditions and the employment status of the household [43]. These farmers have income besides agricultural activities, so they will be less affected by the loss of prosperity due to climate change as opposed to loss of manpower in agriculture.…”

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“…The strength of this framework is that it allows for the exploration of differential access to a series of assets (human, natural, social, physical, and financial) 1 and entitlements that can highlight vulnerability to environmental risk. It also shows how these assets can be used to mediate the impacts of exogenous shocks, including environmental impacts (Bunting et al 2013; Carney 1998; Eakin and Luers 2006; Scoones 1998). To date, only a few studies have modeled the determinants of subjective risk perceptions of populations in rural areas of the developing world.…”

Land Cover Change in Northern Botswana: The Influence of Climate, Fire, and Elephants on Semi-Arid Savanna Woodlands

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