Local Politics, Global Consequences: How Structural Imbalance in Domestic Political Networks Affects International Relations

Kinne, Brandon J; Maoz, Zeev

doi:10.1086/720311

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…It is unclear whether actors wait a period (a calendar year in the case of Maoz et al, 2007 andLerner, 2016) to adjust their relations towards structural balance and why they should do so as other applications of structural balance theory view these changes as instantaneous (see e.g. Kinne and Maoz, 2022). If the countries do not wait for a period, this approach can misrepresent the dynamics of signed networks as contradicting structural balance theory when they do not.…”

Section: Testing Structural Balance Via Lagged Statisticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Accordingly, International Relations scholars have studied whether specific triangular constellations correspond with these propositions (Harary, 1961;Healy and Stein, 1973;McDonald and Rosecrance, 1985;Doreian and Mrvar, 2015) and what implications structural balance has for community formation and system polarization (Hart, 1974;Lee et al, 1994). More recently, studies seek to test whether structural balance affects interstate conflict and cooperation in an inferential framework (Maoz et al, 2007;Lerner, 2016;Kinne and Maoz, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Exponential Random Graph Models for Dynamic Signed Networks: An Application to International Relations

Fritz¹,

Mehrl²,

Thurner³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Substantive research in the Social Sciences regularly investigates signed networks, where edges between actors are either positive or negative. For instance, schoolchildren can be friends or rivals, just as countries can cooperate or fight each other. This research often builds on structural balance theory, one of the earliest and most prominent network theories, making signed networks one of the most frequently studied matters in social network analysis. While the theorization and description of signed networks have thus made significant progress, the inferential study of tie formation within them remains limited in the absence of appropriate statistical models. In this paper we fill this gap by proposing the Signed Exponential Random Graph Model (SERGM), extending the well-known Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) to networks where ties are not binary but negative or positive if a tie exists. Since most networks are dynamically evolving systems, we specify the model for both crosssectional and dynamic networks. Based on structural hypotheses derived from structural balance theory, we formulate interpretable signed network statistics, capturing dynamics such as "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". In our empirical application, we use the SERGM to analyze cooperation and conflict between countries within the international state system.

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Section: Testing Structural Balance Via Lagged Statisticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exponential Random Graph Models for Dynamic Signed Networks: An Application to International Relations

Fritz¹,

Mehrl²,

Thurner³

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Sympathies for Putin Within the German Public: A Consequence of Political Alienation?

Hoffeller,

Steiner

2024

Polit Vierteljahresschr

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Why do individuals in democratic nations sympathize with autocratic leaders from abroad? In this article, we address this general question with regard to Germans’ attitudes toward Vladimir Putin in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Building on the intuition that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” and its formalization in balance theory, our study focuses on the role of political alienation at home. To study this role comprehensively, we consider several facets of political alienation: a lack of trust in political institutions, low support for democracy as a regime, a sense of estrangement from public discourse, and an inclination toward conspiracy thinking. Using longitudinal analyses on data from the German Longitudinal Election Study panel, we provide empirical evidence consistent with our argument that political alienation—particularly in terms of low political trust and a proclivity for conspiracy thinking—drives sympathies for Putin and his regime. Against the backdrop of mounting attempts by Russia and other autocratic powers to influence discourses in Western societies via some segments of society, our findings illuminate one important source of sympathy for Putin and, potentially, foreign autocrats more broadly.

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Bilateral treaty networks: assessing cooperative spillover in defense and investment

Kinne,

Peinhardt

2024

Bus. Polit.

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The potential for mutual influence or “spillover” between economic and security cooperation is a long-standing area of interest for policymakers and scholars alike. This paper examines how network dynamics affect spillover. We focus on two prominent types of formal bilateral cooperation—defense cooperation agreements (DCAs) and bilateral investment treaties (BITs)—both of which have proliferated dramatically in the post-Cold War international system. We argue that existing theoretical and empirical approaches to economic-security spillover focus too strictly on influences at the bilateral level. As with other forms of international cooperation, BITs and DCAs comprise larger international networks. Governments develop portfolios of BITs or DCAs with distinct structural goals in mind, and they implement specific strategies in pursuing those goals. With BITs, governments follow a network-hierarchy strategy that allows them to influence treaty design and protect their firms. In DCAs, governments instead favor a network-community strategy focused on pooling collective security goods among groups of like-minded collaborators. When these network strategies complement one another, they promote cooperative economic-security spillover. When they conflict, however, they inhibit spillover, such that cooperation in economic or security issues discourages cooperation in the opposing issue area.

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Local Politics, Global Consequences: How Structural Imbalance in Domestic Political Networks Affects International Relations

Cited by 6 publications

References 77 publications

Exponential Random Graph Models for Dynamic Signed Networks: An Application to International Relations

Exponential Random Graph Models for Dynamic Signed Networks: An Application to International Relations

Sympathies for Putin Within the German Public: A Consequence of Political Alienation?

Bilateral treaty networks: assessing cooperative spillover in defense and investment

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