In protein structure prediction it is essential to score quickly and reliably large sets of models by selecting the ones that are closest to the native state. We here present a novel statistical potential constructed by Bayesian analysis measuring a few structural observables on a set of 500 experimental protein structures. Even though employing much less parameters than current state-of-the-art methods, our potential is capable of discriminating with an unprecedented reliability the native state in large sets of misfolded models of the same protein. We also introduce the new idea that thermal fluctuations cannot be neglected for scoring models that are very similar to each other. In these cases, the best structure can be recognized only by comparing the probability distributions of our potential over short finite temperature molecular dynamics simulations starting from the competing models. 1-4 are energy functions derived from databases of known protein conformations that empirically aim to capture the most relevant aspects of the physical chemistry of protein structure and function. They are derived by measuring the probability of an observable in an ensemble of experimental structures relative to a reference state 2,6,[16][17][18] . The conversion of the probability into an energy function is normally done employing Boltzmann's law 3 . Theory of conditional probabilities 5,6 , linear and quadratic programming 7 and information theory 8 have been invoked to justify the approach. The simplest observable 1,2 that one can use to characterize a structure is the presence of a contact between two specific residues. This procedure has been generalized to include more and more complex observables 3,6,7,[9][10][11][12][13][14][15] , making the KBPs more and more accurate. , a scoring function derived using an elegant Bayesian analysis, the composite scoring function QMEAN6 35,36 and the potential RF_CB_SRS_OD introduced by Rykunov and Fiser 18 are particularly successfull, even when tested on CASP targets 18,28 . However, even the best performing KBP is not capable of distinguishing the folded state in all the decoy sets, indicating that improvements are still possible. Moreover, the state-of-the-art KBPs exploit many complex observables, such as the distance between pair of residues or atoms, which significantly boosts the number of parameters. The weights of the various terms (which may include correlated observables, such as value of the torsions and the presence of secondary structure elements) are optimized on the decoy sets in order to obtain the best performance 10,35 . This may affect the robustness of the potentials and the possibility to use them for different purposes other than fold recognition.We here introduce a statistical potential that we call BACH (Bayesian Analysis Conformation Hunt). Its definition relies on a few binary structural observables, such as the presence of short range contacts between pair of residues, in the spirit of the original works 1,2 on KBPs. As a consequence, the energy functio...