Locating urban CNG stations using quantitative risk assessment: using the Bayesian network

Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei; Gholamizadeh, Kamran

doi:10.1080/09617353.2020.1858242

Cited by 13 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…is assertion has been posited by Khakzad et al [51]. e present study shows that considering the nonlinear relationships between influential parameters produced higher accuracy than the BT method; this is also in conformity with the previous work of Zarei et al [43] and Aliabadi et al [6]. In addition, the present study corroborates the findings of Papazoglou et al [73] that a direct relationship exists between the heat of combustion and overpressure.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…e railway line studied has been operated for 11 years without any significant leakages; accurate statistics of rail accidents in the study area are scarce. Mirabadi et al [6] regarding the influencing causes of rail accidents between 1994 and 2005 revealed that human error, locomotive defects, and defects in rail cars had the most significant impact on rail accidents in Tehran. is existing study corroborates the results of the present study.…”

Section: Bn Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…BN was applied to quantitative modeling of cause-effect scenarios under uncertainty [6]. is study performed the BN analysis because it provides a noncyclic graph that presents a set of random variables.…”

Section: Bayesian Network Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…en, using Equation ( 6), the fatality probit of the VCE is estimated as [61] Y � − 77.1 + 6.91 ln P, (6) where Y is the fatality probit of the VCE, and P is the overpressure (N/m 2 ). Finally, the probability of VCE fatality or the severity coefficient is estimated using equation ( 7) (based on the probit model):…”

Section: Modeling Of Vcementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Annually, consignments consisting of petroleum products and other hazardous materials result in accidents at localities whose level of emergency preparedness is next to nothing [5,6]. Although rail accidents rarely occur, they are more severe than road accidents, mainly due to the high volume of the hazardous materials transported [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Quantitative Risk Analysis on Rail Transportation of Hazardous Materials

Mohammadfam

Zarei

Yazdi

et al. 2022

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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The hazardous nature of the chemical materials is of significant concern in the economic viability of rail transportation globally. The potential risks of these materials to cause severe health impairments and catastrophic accidents have been widely studied and reported. Moreover, several models have been employed for assessing the risks associated with transporting hazardous materials by rail. However, a more holistic, quantitative, and robust model should incorporate more potential risk-triggered criteria, especially those causing severe health loss and devastating consequences like vapor cloud explosion. This study develops a risk assessment model by incorporating potential health risk factors and the obstacle circumstances. The potential risk factors are population density, route distance from residential areas, and the availability of sensitive third parties for health consequences. The proposed model utilizes Bayesian networks for causality modeling of the material release scenarios and fuzzy set theory for estimating the health effects and severity impact coefficient. Finally, individual risk curves and safe distances from the railway are developed. A real rail system for gasoline transportation in Tehran is investigated to evaluate the model’s effectiveness. The study provides panoramic leverages for risk-managed decision-making for safely transporting hazardous material by rail.

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