Logical and probabilistic risk models for assessment and analysis of the drug addiction problem in a region

Top-economics: management of socioeconomic safety

“…Hybrid LP-risk model is considered as an example of SES combating drug addiction (Figure 1) (Solozhentsev and Mityagin, 2015). The subjects, involved in solving the problem, are: Events-subjects are considered as events-propositions about the failure of subjects and corresponding L-variables.…”

“…1 The research results of socio-economic safety management in the real data are published in the following articles of the journal IJ RAM: synthesis of events probabilities for risk LP-models using non-numerical, inexact and incomplete information (Karaseva and Alexeev, 2015), anaesthesia opposition (Solozhentsev and Mityagin, 2015), innovation system management , safety management of socio-economic systems (Solozhentsev, 2014), management of the bank lending system (Karasev, 2015), risk management technology (Solozhentsev and Karasev, 2015). The results of research of socio-economic security in the real data are also published in the following works in Russian: anti-corruption and bribery (Solozhentsev and Karasev, 2010), quality management systems and products by WTO (Solozhentsev, 2011), operational risk management of banks and redundant capital by Basel (Karaseva, 2012), and others.…”

Logical and Probabilistic Method for Risk Management in Socio-Economic Systems

“…where: Q -gross receipt of the bank; PY -the probability calculated by probabilistic model (12). Evaluations (14), (16) and (17) will be different. Choice of the formula depends on data and expenses of data obtaining.…”

“…Choice of the formula depends on data and expenses of data obtaining. Formula (14) estimates real losses of last years. Formula (16) gives bottom limit of reserved capital under known losses.…”

“…The construction of indicative LP-model we are considering at example of socio-economic system for counteraction to narcotization. The aim of risk management is reduction large economical losses in State, caused by narcotism, and increasing of morality in society [6,14].…”