Logical-linguistic model of anthrax epizootic monitoring in Far North

Abstract

Abstract. According to veterinary statistics, the territory of the Taimyr region has 39 registered areas with an epizootic epidemic of anthrax fever. Anthrax is a potentially dangerous infect1ious disease for both animals and humans. The spores of the causative agent of anthrax retain their viability and pathogenicity for 50-70 years or more. Therefore, many old foci of anthrax infection ("epizooty sites") are potentially dangerous at the present time. In connection with the intensive industrial development of the Far North regions, leading to excavation in high-risk areas for anthrax, there is a need to predict the possibility of occurrence and prevention of infection in these areas. A logical-linguistic model for estimating the probability of occurrence of anthrax infection in the five-dimensional factor space has been constructed on the basis of expert knowledge, which makes it possible to carry out epizootic monitoring in a quantitative form. The results of the prognostic estimation have shown that the probability of anthrax occurrence on this territory under all favorable conditions for the development of an anthrax process without preventive measures is likely to be high and accounts for 0.484, however, under the same conditions with preventive measures it amounts to 0.287. The implementation of preventive measures reduces the risk of anthrax occurrence twice. A computerized automated system for assessing the territory of the Taimyr Municipal District has been developed in terms of the risk of anthrax outbreaks on the basis of the constructed logical-linguistic model in the five-dimensional space of fuzzy variables. This makes it possible to optimize the system of epizootic surveillance for this disease