Logistic Population Growth in the World's Largest Cities

Mulligan, Gordon F.

doi:10.1111/j.1538-4632.2006.00690.x

Cited by 16 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…A more comprehensive methodology is required to account for the rapid growth and expansion of mid-sized and smaller cities in the world geography of urbanisation. We have therefore replicated Mulligan and Crampton's (2005) calculation of the world's urban centre of demographic gravity based on the location and population of the world's cities (our results vary slightly from theirs since our calculations were based on an updated and enlarged data set). We found ongoing shifts in a southeasterly direction, consistent with the trend identified by Mulligan and Crampton (2005).…”

Section: The Shifting World Urban Centres Of Population and Publication Gravitymentioning

confidence: 95%

Cities on and off the map: A bibliometric assessment of urban globalisation research

2017

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Growing out of writings on Global (North) cities, urban globalisation research (UGR) has expanded its canon to engage with an increasing diversity of cities and locations. Yet, this broadening has been uneven and controversial in its theoretical horizons and empirical universe. Focusing on the latter, this paper combines bibliometric, demographic, economic and georeferenced data to assess how UGR maps onto internationally documented cities (n: 1692). Our study analyses city-themed publications by city location, demographic size and home-country income (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014). Drawing on social science publications indexed in English (Scopus database), our results provide grounds for cautious optimism: recent publications offer broader, though still uneven coverage. The moving spatial average of publication counts also implies that the topical centre of published research gravity is shifting away from Euro-America. Yet, UGR lags in its coverage of the urban geographical universe, failing to keep pace with the economic/demographic trends that are resulting in southward/eastward shifts in worldwide urbanisation. Furthermore, while smaller cities and those in lower-income countries are still sidelined, cities in upper-middle income countries exhibit the largest gaps between observed and expected publication values. In our conclusion, we contend that urban bibliometrics could be further mobilised to identify publication foci and lacunae. Applied to cities on and off the map and a broader universe of urban knowledges, bibliometrics could help move contentious debates forward, identifying newer paradigms that may be engaging the world of cities beyond the globalisation umbrella and charting out multiple and complex topical relations across variegated worlds of urbanism.

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Section: The Shifting World Urban Centres Of Population and Publication Gravitymentioning

confidence: 95%

Cities on and off the map: A bibliometric assessment of urban globalisation research

2017

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“…It clearly shows that complex dynamic behavior does not require complex rules. There is a wide spectrum of applications of the logistic model, from chemical reaction rates over growth of animal and plant populations up to the growth of towns . Quite similar patterns are obtained from the Lotka–Volterra equations, which find extensive use in biology, ecology, and epidemiology.…”

Section: Mathematical Modelingmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…There is a wide spectrum of applications of the logistic model, from chemical reaction rates over growth of animal and plant populations up to the growth of towns. [21] Quite similar patterns are obtained from the Lotka-Volterra equations, [22] which find extensive use in biology, ecology, and epidemiology. In particular, they have been used to investigate the relationship between predator and prey and the associated systemic risks with respect to the stock of a population.…”

Section: Top-down Modelsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Systemic Risks: Theory and Mathematical Modeling

Lucas

Renn

Jaeger

2018

Advcd Theory and Sims

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In a globally connected world, new opportunities are associated with new types of risks. These new types of risks do not respect national boundaries nor are they restricted to particular locations or systems. Instead, they are characterized by contagion and proliferation processes, frequently on the basis of a network structure, with the result that a seemingly harmless local event is able to cause a complete system collapse. The proposal has been made to refer to these types of new risks as systemic risks. It turns out that key phenomena associated with systemic risks can quite naturally be categorized and analyzed in terms of notions originally established in the natural sciences, such as those of chaos, order, and self-organization, or, more concisely, of dynamic structure generation in complex open systems. In this Essay, the claim is made that there is a homomorphism within the dynamic structure generation across very different domains of systemic risks. Furthermore, there are structural similarities between complex structures in general, and systemic risks in particular. Based on this assumption, one can use established methodologies of complexity science to reveal general macroscopic patterns that seem to govern the dynamics of complex systems.

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“…For example, Gaile and Hanink (1985) found that the growth of individual cities over time can be simply described with reference to a truncated normal curve. Mulligan (2006) demonstrated that the growth of the world's largest cities follows a logistic process. The new economic geography (NEG), based on a general equilibrium framework, has provided a modelling strategy based on the spatial distribution of agglomeration in urban and regional systems (Fujita and Mori, 2005).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Spatial and Temporal Autocorrelated Growth Model for City Rank—Size Distribution

Harriss

2009

Urban Studies

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Rank—size distribution has been an important tool in characterising and analysing city size distributions across spatial and temporal scales. Zipf’s law in city rank—size distribution has been observed in many analyses and is considered an important empirical regularity describing the organisation of cities. Based on analyses of the evolution of cities in Texas from 1850 to 2000, this paper documents spatial and temporal autocorrelation in city population growth rates. A modelling strategy has been developed that accounts for the spatial and temporal autocorrelated growth in Texas cities and is effective in reconstructing the empirical rank—size distribution. This study shows that it is necessary to take into account the interdependence among cities in simulating the city size distribution.

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Logistic Population Growth in the World's Largest Cities

Cited by 16 publications

References 49 publications

Cities on and off the map: A bibliometric assessment of urban globalisation research

Cities on and off the map: A bibliometric assessment of urban globalisation research

Systemic Risks: Theory and Mathematical Modeling

A Spatial and Temporal Autocorrelated Growth Model for City Rank—Size Distribution

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