Logistics of community smallpox control through contact tracing and ring vaccination: a stochastic network model

Porco, Travis C.; Holbrook, Karen A.; Fernyak, Susan; Portnoy, Diane; Reiter, R.; Aragón, Tomás

doi:10.1186/1471-2458-4-34

Cited by 60 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…For example, Kretzschmar et al (2004) and Porco et al (2004) looked at the efficacy of contact tracing and ring vaccination to control a smallpox outbreak. Other authors (e.g., Müller et al (2000) and Huerta and Tsimring (2002)) have developed theoretical models to evaluate the effectiveness of contact tracing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal mix of screening and contact tracing for endemic diseases

Armbruster

Brandeau

2007

Mathematical Biosciences

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Two common means of controlling infectious diseases are screening and contact tracing. Which should be used, and when? We consider the problem of determining the cheapest mix of screening and contact tracing necessary to achieve a desired endemic prevalence of a disease or to identify a specified number of cases. We perform a partial equilibrium analysis of small-scale interventions, assuming that prevalence is unaffected by the intervention; we develop a full equilibrium analysis where we compare the long-term cost of various combinations of screening and contact tracing needed to achieve a given equilibrium prevalence; and we solve the problem of minimizing the total costs of identifying and treating disease cases plus the cost of untreated disease cases. Our analysis provides several insights. First, contact tracing is only cost effective when prevalence is below a threshold value. This threshold depends on the relative cost per case found by screening versus contact tracing. Second, for a given contact tracing policy, the screening rate needed to achieve a given prevalence or identify a specified number of cases is a decreasing function of disease prevalence. As prevalence increases above the threshold (and contact tracing is discontinued), the screening rate jumps discontinuously to a higher level. Third, these qualitative results hold when we consider unchanged or changed prevalence, and short-term or long-term costs.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal mix of screening and contact tracing for endemic diseases

Armbruster

Brandeau

2007

Mathematical Biosciences

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“…With the commencement of the next stage, vaccinations were to be opened up to a whole range of first responders across the health 4 The most authoritative source regarding the effectiveness of the ring vaccination approach (for smallpox) is Fenner et al (1988), noted above. Other sources discussing the ring vaccination strategy include: Committee on Infectious Diseases (2002); Bozzette et al (2003); Kretzschmar et al (2004); Porco et al (2004);and Pourbohloul et al (2005). 5 Public health experts suspect that immunologically "naïve" populations -that is, populations with little or no prior exposure to smallpox -would be particularly susceptible to the disease, both in terms of acquiring it and its severity.…”

Section: Program Implementationmentioning

confidence: 99%

4. How did the smallpox vaccination program come about?

Rose¹

2008

Biosecurity Interventions

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“…It was channeled according to particular social relationships as well as through more general patterns of social inequality. In recent years, such structures have been typically (if crudely) incorporated into stochastic models for infectious diseases (Eichner and Dietz 2003;Kretzschmar et al 2004;Porco et al 2004). Based upon the historical lessons of Yugoslavia, they should have been incorporated into Dark Winter.…”

Section: Deflecting the Social Lessons Of Smallpox 179mentioning

confidence: 99%

Dark Winter and the Spring of 1972: Deflecting the Social Lessons of Smallpox

Barrett

2006

Medical Anthropology

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This article examines how the master status of bioterrorism has distracted professional and political attention from the social lessons of smallpox. I illustrate this by comparing an influential bioterrorism simulation known as Dark Winter with the social history surrounding the Yugoslavian smallpox epidemic of 1972. Dark Winter's epidemiological premises were largely based upon what was learned from the Yugoslavian outbreak. Yet, although this epidemic was non-deliberate, the exercise did not attend to the social conditions within which it developed. Most notably, it did not consider that this epidemic was mainly borne by marginalized communities of Kosovan Albanians and that difficulties in controlling it were linked to the relative lack of pre-existing public health infrastructure among these people; instead, the Dark Winter exercise mainly focused upon the proximate determinants of violence and its immediate management. This distraction from the social dynamics of infectious diseases has major implications for the prevention and management of future outbreaks, regardless of whether or not they are deliberately initiated.

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Logistics of community smallpox control through contact tracing and ring vaccination: a stochastic network model

Abstract: Background: Previous smallpox ring vaccination models based on contact tracing over a network suggest that ring vaccination would be effective, but have not explicitly included response logistics and limited numbers of vaccinators.

Cited by 60 publications

References 45 publications

Optimal mix of screening and contact tracing for endemic diseases

Optimal mix of screening and contact tracing for endemic diseases

4. How did the smallpox vaccination program come about?

Dark Winter and the Spring of 1972: Deflecting the Social Lessons of Smallpox

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