Long Cycles and Anticipation

Pop, Adrian

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-91554-8_85

Cited by 1 publication

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“…In the systemic arena, three streams of theory are dominant: long-cycle theory (LCT), power transition theory (PTT) and hegemonic stability theory (HST). Essentially, these theories deal with a similar phenomenon of the connections of historical and structural changes to power and position of the most influential states in world politics (Flint, 2017, p. 218; Goldstein, 1988, p, 349; Pop, 2019, p. 677). The LCT argues that superpowers rise and fall following a trend of cyclical leadership shifts over the last 120 years (Modelski, 2014, pp.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combinative Hedging: Japan and Russia in the East Asian Contested Hierarchical Order

Suhito,

Wicaksana

2024

Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs

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The recent developments in world politics have demonstrated that East Asia has emerged as a critical locus for great power politics, characterised by the pluralisation of power centres resulting from the competing strategic interests of the United States and China. Indeed, the regional order’s power constellation is moving towards a contested hierarchical model. The first-tier United States seeks to maintain its ‘plural hegemony’ through social compacts, while China fits within the hierarchy as a second-tier state, gradually emerging as an influential actor on the regional and global stage. Third-tier states, such as Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, and Russia, with its abundant energy resources and military prowess, have become potential swing players of influence within the evolving orders— appropriate to their respective capabilities. Observing this dynamic geopolitical environment, our article discusses the relationship between Japan and Russia as they attempt to protect their interests within a pluralising region. We argue that Japan and Russia take a combinative hedge, focusing on flexible collaboration, enabling risk mitigation and maximising short or long-term benefits.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%