Long-distance migratory birds threatened by multiple independent risks from global change

Zurell, Damaris; Graham, Catherine H.; Gallien, Laure; Thuiller, Wilfried; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0312-9

Cited by 105 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Birds have been shown to geographically track their historical climatic niches (Tingley et al, , Illán, et al ). While most studies focus on temporal changes occurring within a single season, there are few comparative studies looking at species‐specific shifts between two distinct periods (but see Potvin et al, ; Zurell, Graham, Gallien, Thuiller, & Zimmermann, ). We offer evidence that environmental variables are differentially tracked between seasons and that distributions throughout the annual cycle are independent.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Differential winter and breeding range shifts: Implications for avian migration distances

Curley

Manne

Veit

2020

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim For many migratory avian species, winter and breeding habitats occur at geographically distinct locations. Disparate magnitudes and direction of shifts in wintering and breeding locations could lead to altered migration distances. We investigated how shifts in the centre of abundance (COA) of winter and breeding ranges have changed for 77 species of short‐distance migratory birds. We addressed whether species tracked their historical average temperature and precipitation conditions at their winter and breeding COA, using data from 1990 to 2015. Location North America. Methods We calculated the COA for winter and breeding ranges from the National Audubon Society's Christmas Bird Count and the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We regressed the annual change in distance (km) between the two annual COAs of each species as a proxy for change in migration distance. We constructed a series of generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to evaluate changes in average temperature and precipitation at the wintering and breeding COAs. Results Winter shifts in COA were predominantly northward. For most species, average temperature and precipitation that species experienced had not changed. Breeding shifts in COA varied in direction. For breeding season COAs, average temperature warmed, but average precipitation had not changed. Thirty‐one species significantly decreased their migration distances, mainly driven by northward shifts in the winter range. Ten species increased their migration distances. Main conclusions Winter and breeding range shifts in COA have not occurred at the same magnitude and direction and have therefore impacted migration distance. Our results suggest that wintering and breeding range shifts occur independently and under different climate pressures.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While most studies focus on temporal changes occurring within a single season, there are few comparative studies looking at species-specific shifts between two distinct periods (but see Potvin et al, 2016;Zurell, Graham, Gallien, Thuiller, & Zimmermann, 2018).…”

Section: Impacts On Migration Distancesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differential winter and breeding range shifts: Implications for avian migration distances

Curley

Manne

Veit

2020

Diversity and Distributions

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…see Barbosa, Estrada, Márquez, Purvis, & Orme, 2012;Fourcade, 2016;Herkt et al, 2017;Meyer et al, 2015), coming to mixed conclusions; however, EOO range maps are still widely used in macroecological research (Belmaker & Jetz, 2015;Hof et al, 2018;Slavenko & Meiri, 2015;Thuiller et al, 2019;Torres-Romero & Olalla-Tárraga, 2015;Zurell et al, 2018). see Barbosa, Estrada, Márquez, Purvis, & Orme, 2012;Fourcade, 2016;Herkt et al, 2017;Meyer et al, 2015), coming to mixed conclusions; however, EOO range maps are still widely used in macroecological research (Belmaker & Jetz, 2015;Hof et al, 2018;Slavenko & Meiri, 2015;Thuiller et al, 2019;Torres-Romero & Olalla-Tárraga, 2015;Zurell et al, 2018).…”

Section: Future Pat Tern S Of S Pecie S Richne Ssmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…SDMs are a widely used tool for predicting species distributions in response to changing climate (Engler et al, 2011;Hof, Araújo, Jetz, & Rahbek, 2011;Hof et al, 2018; Morán-Ordóñez, Lahoz-Monfort, Elith, Wintle, & Guisan, 2017;Peterson et al, 2002;Thuiller, Guéguen, Renaud, Karger, & Zimmermann, 2019;Zurell, Graham, Gallien, Thuiller, & Zimmermann, 2018). SDMs are based on statistical correlations between species occurrences and environmental predictor variables (Elith & Leathwick, 2009;Guisan & Thuiller, 2005;Guisan & Zimmermann, 2000), which can then be transferred into future time periods to predict future species distributions under climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A comparison of macroecological and stacked species distribution models to predict future global terrestrial vertebrate richness

Biber

Voskamp

Niamir

et al. 2019

Journal of Biogeography

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Aim Predicting future changes in species richness in response to climate change is one of the key challenges in biogeography and conservation ecology. Stacked species distribution models (S‐SDMs) are a commonly used tool to predict current and future species richness. Macroecological models (MEMs), regression models with species richness as response variable, are a less computationally intensive alternative to S‐SDMs. Here, we aim to compare the results of two model types (S‐SDMS and MEMs), for the first time for more than 14,000 species across multiple taxa globally, and to trace the uncertainty in future predictions back to the input data and modelling approach used. Location Global land, excluding Antarctica. Taxon Amphibians, birds and mammals. Methods We fitted S‐SDMs and MEMs using a consistent set of bioclimatic variables and model algorithms and conducted species richness predictions under current and future conditions. For the latter, we used four general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Predicted species richness was compared between S‐SDMs and MEMs and for current conditions also to extent‐of‐occurrence (EOO) species richness patterns. For future predictions, we quantified the variance in predicted species richness patterns explained by the choice of model type, model algorithm and GCM using hierarchical cluster analysis and variance partitioning. Results Under current conditions, species richness predictions from MEMs and S‐SDMs were strongly correlated with EOO‐based species richness. However, both model types over‐predicted areas with low and under‐predicted areas with high species richness. Outputs from MEMs and S‐SDMs were also highly correlated among each other under current and future conditions. The variance between future predictions was mostly explained by model type. Main conclusions Both model types were able to reproduce EOO‐based patterns in global terrestrial vertebrate richness, but produce less collinear predictions of future species richness. Model type by far contributes to most of the variation in the different future species richness predictions, indicating that the two model types should not be used interchangeably. Nevertheless, both model types have their justification, as MEMs can also include species with a restricted range, whereas S‐SDMs are useful for looking at potential species‐specific responses.

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“…This uncertainty is compounded by the effects of other global change processes that are known to affect migratory bird populations; e.g. land-use change (La Sorte et al 2017a, Zurell et al 2018) and nighttime light pollution (La Sorte et al 2017b, Van Doren et al 2017, Cabrera-Cruz et al 2018). Nevertheless, our findings do provide a basis to identify the geographic regions and seasons where novel climates will first emerge, and where the initial pressure to respond or adapt will be the most pronounced.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time of emergence of novel climates for North American migratory bird populations

2019

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To better understand the ecological implications of global climate change for species that display geographically and seasonally dynamic life‐history strategies, we need to determine where and when novel climates are projected to first emerge. Here, we use a multivariate approach to estimate time of emergence (ToE) of novel climates based on three climate variables (precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature) at a weekly temporal resolution within the Western Hemisphere over a 280‐yr period (2021–2300) under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). We intersect ToE estimates with weekly estimates of relative abundance for 77 passerine bird species that migrate between temperate breeding grounds in North America and southern tropical and subtropical wintering grounds using observations from the eBird citizen‐science database. During the non‐breeding season, migrants that winter within the tropics are projected to encounter novel climates during the second half of this century. Migrants that winter in the subtropics are projected to encounter novel climates during the first half of the next century. During the beginning of the breeding season, migrants on their temperate breeding grounds are projected to encounter novel climates during the first half of the next century. During the end of the breeding season, migrants are projected to encounter novel climates during the second half of this century. Thus, novel climates will first emerge ca 40–50 yr earlier during the second half of the breeding season. These results emphasize the large seasonal and spatial variation in the formation of novel climates, and the pronounced challenges migratory birds are likely to encounter during this century, especially on their tropical wintering grounds and during the transition from breeding to migration. When assessing the ecological implications of climate change, our findings emphasize the value of applying a full annual cycle perspective using standardized metrics that promote comparisons across space and time.

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Long-distance migratory birds threatened by multiple independent risks from global change

Cited by 105 publications

References 48 publications

Differential winter and breeding range shifts: Implications for avian migration distances

Differential winter and breeding range shifts: Implications for avian migration distances

A comparison of macroecological and stacked species distribution models to predict future global terrestrial vertebrate richness

Time of emergence of novel climates for North American migratory bird populations

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