Long‐Lead Drought Forecasting Across the Continental United States Using Burg Entropy Spectral Analysis With a Multiresolution Approach

Abstract

Under a high-emission scenario (Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenario [SSP5-8.5]), the global aridity regions are expected to expand ∼10% by 2100 (Pascale et al., 2020;Sherwood & Fu, 2014). Global warming also contributed to a rapid increase in the occurrence of more frequent, severe, persistent, and spatially extensive droughts after 2000 (Dai, 2011;Han & Singh, 2020). Amid extreme drought-prone conditions, sustainable water supplies for domestic, agricultural, industrial, and environmental sectors have been a central issue to achieve drought resilience systems (Han & Singh, 2020;Mukherjee et al., 2018). Achieving drought resilience systems requires a proactive drought management plan based on accurate and reliable drought forecasting (Nam et al., 2015;Wilhite et al., 2000).Preparations for a reliable drought management plan have utilized a number of drought forecasting methods developed with the use of statistical, data-driven, or dynamical approaches (e.g., Altunkaynak &