Long-standing influenza vaccination policy is in accord with individual self-interest but not with the utilitarian optimum

Galvani, Alison P.; Reluga, Timothy C.; Chapman, Gretchen B.

doi:10.1073/pnas.0606774104

Cited by 248 publications

(278 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…However, lower overall risk of infection reduces the private benefit to vaccinated individuals. Since individuals are less likely to get vaccinated if they perceive a low risk of influenza infection [30] or a low vaccine effectiveness [31], the evolutionary benefits of vaccination potentially exacerbate an existing collective action problem [58]. This tradeoff emphasizes the significance of information campaigns, subsidies, or regulations concerning societal vaccination.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The beneficial effects of vaccination on the evolution of seasonal influenza

Wen

Malani

Cobey

2017

Preprint

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Although vaccines against seasonal influenza are designed to protect against currently circulating strains, they may also affect the emergence of antigenically divergent strains and thereby change the rate of antigenic evolution. Such evolutionary effects could change the benefits that vaccines confer to vaccinated individuals and the host population (i.e. private and social benefits). To investigate vaccinations potential evolutionary impacts, we simulated the dynamics of an influenza-like pathogen in an annually vaccinated host population. On average, vaccination decreased the cumulative amount of antigenic evolution of the viral population and the incidence of disease. Vaccination at a 5% random annual vaccination rate (48% cumulative vaccine coverage after 20 years) decreased cumulative evolution by 56% and incidence by 76%. To understand how the evolutionary effects of vaccination might affect its private and social benefits over multiple seasons, we fit linear panel models to simulated infection and vaccination histories. Including the evolutionary effects of vaccination lowered the private benefits by 14% but increased the social benefits by 30% (at a 5% annual vaccination rate) compared to when evolutionary effects were ignored. Thus, in the long term, vaccines' private benefits may be lower and social benefits may be greater than predicted by current measurements of vaccine impact, which do not capture long-term evolutionary effects. These results suggest that conventional vaccines against seasonal influenza could greatly reduce the burden of disease by slowing antigenic evolution like universal vaccines. Furthermore, vaccination's evolutionary effects compound a collective action problem, highlighting the importance on social policies concerning vaccination.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The beneficial effects of vaccination on the evolution of seasonal influenza

Wen

Malani

Cobey

2017

Preprint

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“…the parents' decision not to vaccinate children after comparing the perceived risk of disease and the perceived risk of vaccine side effects [1,2,6]. Vaccination free riding [3,10,13,1,2,6,7,9,21,22,11] makes eradication impossible (unless special contact structures are considered [19]) and triggers stable oscillations in the infection prevalence. Previous studies on the impact of vaccination free riding on endemic infections have focused on scenarios where the vaccine demand is driven by the time changes in the perceived risk of disease, measured through the current (or past) infection prevalence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of vaccine side effects on the natural history of immunization programmes: An imitation-game approach

d’Onofrio

Manfredi

Poletti

2011

Journal of Theoretical Biology

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To cite this version:Alberto D'Onofrio, Piero Manfredi, Piero Poletti. The impact of vaccine side effects on the natural history of immunization programmes: an imitation-game approach. Journal of Theoretical Biology, Elsevier, 2011, 273 (1) This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting galley proof before it is published in its final citable form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.The impact of vaccine side effects on the natural history of immunization programmes: an imitation-game approach AbstractWhen the incidence and prevalence of most common vaccine preventable childhood infectious diseases are constantly low, as is the case in many industrialized countries, the incidence of vaccine-associated side effects might become a key determinant in vaccine demand. We study an SIR transmission model with dynamic vaccine demand based on an imitation mechanism where the perceived risk of vaccination is modelled as a function of the incidence of vaccine side effects. The model shows some important differences compared to previous game dynamic models of vaccination, and allows noteworthy inferences as regards both the past and future lifetime of vaccination programmes. In particular it is suggested that a huge disproportion between the perceived risk of disease and vaccination is necessary in order to achieve high coverages. This disproportion is further increased in highly industrialised countries. Such considerations represent serious challenges for future vaccination programmes.

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“…Choisy et al (2006) studied numerically a time-varying SEIR model with pulse vaccinations and warned that such a strategy can actually lead to complex dynamics and an increase of the infected population. Galvani et al (2007) proposed a model of influenza in which the population was structured in elderly and younger people; seasons were accounted for, as well as a pulse vaccination occurring each autumn. It was shown, through a numerical analysis, that the classical vaccination programme (elderly vaccination) was actually not the best way to control influenza epidemics.…”

Section: (I) Pulse Vaccination Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

A note on semi-discrete modelling in the life sciences

Mailleret

Lemesle

2009

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

100

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Semi-discrete models are a particular class of hybrid dynamical systems that undergo continuous dynamics most of the time but repeatedly experience discrete changes at some given moments. In the life sciences, since the first semi-discrete model was derived to describe population dynamics by Beverton & Holt (Beverton & Holt 1957 In Fisheries investigations , series 2, vol. 19), a large body of literature has been concerned with such modelling approaches. The aim of the present contribution is twofold. On the one hand, it provides a comprehensive introduction to semi-discrete modelling through two illustrative examples: the classical work by Beverton and Holt is recalled and an original example on immigration in a population model affected by a strong Allee effect is worked out. On the other hand, a short overview of the different applications of semi-discrete models in the life sciences is proposed.

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Long-standing influenza vaccination policy is in accord with individual self-interest but not with the utilitarian optimum

Cited by 248 publications

References 54 publications

The beneficial effects of vaccination on the evolution of seasonal influenza

The beneficial effects of vaccination on the evolution of seasonal influenza

The impact of vaccine side effects on the natural history of immunization programmes: An imitation-game approach

A note on semi-discrete modelling in the life sciences

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