Long‐Term Afterslip of the 2004<b>M</b> 6.0 Parkfield, California, Earthquake—Implications for Forecasting Amount and Duration of Afterslip on Other Major Creeping Faults

Lienkaemper, James J.; McFarland, Forrest S.

doi:10.1785/0120160321

Cited by 21 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…We propose that these sedimentary rocks exhibit ratestrengthening behavior that promotes aseismic slip. This is consistent with observations of extended afterslip in thicker sedimentary basins [e.g., Lienkaemper and McFarland, 2017].…”

Section: Fault Creep At Sabancayasupporting

confidence: 93%

Volcano-tectonic interactions at Sabancaya volcano, Peru: eruptions, magmatic inflation, moderate earthquakes, and fault creep

MacQueen

Delgado

Reath

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Section: Fault Creep At Sabancayasupporting

confidence: 93%

Volcano-tectonic interactions at Sabancaya volcano, Peru: eruptions, magmatic inflation, moderate earthquakes, and fault creep

MacQueen

Delgado

Reath

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…The mean stress relaxation rate of the major afterslip zone is shown in Figure a. It indicates that the significant postseismic stress relaxation occurs in the first five to ten years after the M 6 event, which is consistent with the most recent afterslip forecasting results (6~12 years; Lienkaemper & McFarland, ). We also calculate the stress loading rate averaged over the major afterslip zone that is produced by the deep viscoelastic relaxation (VER).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

The NextM~6 Event in Parkfield Implied by a Physical Model Linking Interseismic, Coseismic, and Postseismic Phase

Wang

2018

JGR Solid Earth

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Determination of the constitutive frictional parameters is crucial for describing the dynamic behaviors of natural faults. In this study, we explore the along‐strike variation in fault friction along the San Andreas Fault in Parkfield, where characteristic M6 earthquakes occur nearly every 25 years. Using displacement data measured over decades encompassing the interseismic, coseismic, and postseismic phase of the 2004 M6 event, which involve inherent fault rheological responses to tectonic loading, we construct a physical model based on the rate‐dependent friction law to describe the fault slip and stress evolution. Our modeled friction rate parameter is consistent with available laboratory measurements using fault cores collected from the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth. Based on the physical model linking interseismic, coseismic, and postseismic phase, we predict that the 25‐year slip deficit following the 2004 M6 earthquake will predominantly accumulate in the area to the south of the 2004 event hypocenter, with an energy equivalent to a M6.0 event. Together with the slip deficit accumulated over the 25 years prior to the 2004 event that was unreleased by this event, the total slip deficit amounts to a moment magnitude of M6.35 ± 0.11, suggesting the upper limit of the seismic release level until 2029. The proposed model (1) involves only two free quantities (the friction rate parameter and velocity coefficient used to determine the effective normal stress); (2) is well constrained by available interseismic, coseismic, and postseismic displacement data; and (3) highlights along‐strike variations in the fault friction.

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“…In particular, transient aseismic slip following earthquakes (afterslip) may account for a significant fraction of the total moment release on some faults. This has been documented at Parkfield for both the 1966 and 2004 earthquakes (e.g., Lienkaemper & McFarland, 2017;Smith & Wyss, 1968), although the amount of afterslip at Parkfield may be extreme because of its proximity to the nearby creeping section. Other earthquakes on strike-slip faults have postseismic moment of 15-30% of the coseismic (e.g., Floyd et al, 2016;Reilinger et al, 2000).…”

Section: Discrepancy Between Observed and Estimated Moment In Southermentioning

confidence: 88%

Bounding the Moment Deficit Rate on Crustal Faults Using Geodetic Data: Application to Southern California

2018

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The interseismic moment deficit rate (MDR) constrains the potential for future moment release in earthquakes. Published estimates of the geodetic MDR in Southern California vary by a factor of 3 depending on the type of forward model, method of estimation, and data quality. It is our aim to determine to what degree these discrepancies may be explained by quantifying the uncertainty for a given class of forward models, accounting for data errors and limited model resolution. We apply a new method, the Constrained Optimization Bounding Estimator, to bound the MDR in Southern California using geodetic data and an elastic plate‐block model. Total MDR ranges from 1.3 to 2.0 × 1019 N m/yr, equivalent to one MW 8.17–8.31 over 160 years, higher than the observed seismic moment since 1850. This observation, together with published estimates of off‐fault moment rate, could imply that significant permanent (inelastic) deformation is taking place in Southern California or that future earthquakes will make up the difference. Uncertainty in MDR from Constrained Optimization Bounding Estimator using a single model is comparable to the range of published MDR estimates using elastic block models but about a factor of 8 smaller than the range of all published models. Thus, the choice of forward model dominates theuncertainty in MDR for Southern California. While additional data would be helpful for constraining the MDR, as much or more effort is needed to quantify the prediction errors associated with a given model and to develop observations that narrow the possible range of forward models under consideration.

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Long‐Term Afterslip of the 2004M 6.0 Parkfield, California, Earthquake—Implications for Forecasting Amount and Duration of Afterslip on Other Major Creeping Faults

Cited by 21 publications

References 43 publications

Volcano-tectonic interactions at Sabancaya volcano, Peru: eruptions, magmatic inflation, moderate earthquakes, and fault creep

Volcano-tectonic interactions at Sabancaya volcano, Peru: eruptions, magmatic inflation, moderate earthquakes, and fault creep

The NextM~6 Event in Parkfield Implied by a Physical Model Linking Interseismic, Coseismic, and Postseismic Phase

Bounding the Moment Deficit Rate on Crustal Faults Using Geodetic Data: Application to Southern California

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