Long-term changes in annual maximum snow depth and snowfall in Switzerland based on extreme value statistics

Marty, Christoph; Blanchet, Juliette

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0159-9

Cited by 108 publications

(97 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…In almost all northern Europe, a decrease in the winter total snowfall in twenty-first century was also suggested by 12 regional models under the SRES A1B scenario (Räisänen, 2015). The decreasing trend of snowfall across most areas of Northern Hemisphere may be due to the observed decrease of snow/rain ratio caused by the increase of air temperature (Marty and Blanchet, 2012;Krasting et al, 2013). Knowles et al (2006) also found that the ratio of snowfall water equivalent (SFE) to total precipitation (P ) became smaller in winter in the western United States during 1949States during -2004.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 70%

Patterns and trends of high-impact weather in China during 1959–2014

Shi

Wen

Cui³

2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the frequencies of four types of high-impact weather (HIW), i.e. snowfall, thunderstorms, fog and hailstorms, were analysed in China during . Results indicate a significant decrease in the number of snowfall days, thunderstorm days and thunderstorm spells in all six regions of China, with regional decreasing rates of 0.1-3.4 days, 1.6-5.1 days and 0.23-0.77 times per decade respectively. The number of foggy days, hailstorm days and snowfall spells decreased at rates of 0.2-1.8 days, 0.1-0.7 days and 0.14-0.44 times per decade respectively in almost all regions and fog and hailstorm spells decreased at rates of 0.06-0.17 and 0.001-0.043 times per decade respectively in most regions of China. Spatially, there was more snowfall in northeastern China and western China, and more thunderstorms in southern China and southwestern China. The number of fog events was larger in some high mountain stations, eastern China and central China. Hailstorms were concentrated on QinghaiTibet Plateau. Over the past 56 years, snowfall days, thunderstorm days and thunderstorm spells decreased in most parts of China, and hailstorm days decreased in northeastern China, most parts of northern China and Tibet, southern Qinghai and western Sichuan. The spatial trends of foggy days, foggy spells, snowfall spells and hailstorm spells were not significant in most parts of China. With global warming, some types of HIW are likely to increase in their intensities, so more mitigation and adaptation strategies are still essential for local government and the public in China.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 70%

Patterns and trends of high-impact weather in China during 1959–2014

Shi

Wen

Cui³

2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…The decreasing pattern for extreme snow fall rates is less clear than for extreme snow depth, except for low elevations where the influence of increasing temperatures is predominant (Marty and Blanchet, 2012). …”

Section: Observed Changes In Snow Covermentioning

confidence: 99%

The European mountain cryosphere: A review of past, current and future issues

Beniston

Farinotti

Stoffel

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. The mountain cryosphere is recognized to have important impacts on a range of environmental processes. This 30 paper reviews current knowledge on snow, glacier, and permafrost processes, as well as their past, current and future The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc- -290, 2017 Manuscript under review for journal The Cryosphere Published: 9 January 2017 c Author(s) 2017. CC-BY 3.0 License. 2 evolution in mountain regions in mainland Europe. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the current state of cryosphere research in Europe and point to the different domains requiring further research to improve our understanding of climate-cryosphere interactions, cryosphere controls on physical and biological mountain systems, as well as related impacts.We highlight advances in the modeling of the cryosphere, and identify inherent uncertainties in our capability of projecting changes in the context of a warming global climate. 5

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“…The catastrophic effects of heavy snowfall range from avalanches and floods to road or rail damage. In extreme cases these events can even result in the weight-driven collapse of buildings or loss of human life (Marty and Blanchet, 2011). Also, mean snowfall conditions, such as the mean number of snowfall days in a given period, can be of high relevance for road management (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future snowfall in the Alps: projections based on the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Twenty-first century snowfall changes over the European Alps are assessed based on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) data made available through the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Fourteen different combinations of global and regional climate models with a target resolution of 12 km and two different emission scenarios are considered. As raw snowfall amounts are not provided by all RCMs, a newly developed method to separate snowfall from total precipitation based on near-surface temperature conditions and accounting for subgrid-scale topographic variability is employed. The evaluation of the simulated snowfall amounts against an observation-based reference indicates the ability of RCMs to capture the main characteristics of the snowfall seasonal cycle and its elevation dependency but also reveals considerable positive biases especially at high elevations. These biases can partly be removed by the application of a dedicated RCM bias adjustment that separately considers temperature and precipitation biases.Snowfall projections reveal a robust signal of decreasing snowfall amounts over most parts of the Alps for both emission scenarios. Domain and multi-model mean decreases in mean September-May snowfall by the end of the century amount to −25 and −45 % for representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Snowfall in low-lying areas in the Alpine forelands could be reduced by more than −80 %. These decreases are driven by the projected warming and are strongly connected to an important decrease in snowfall frequency and snowfall fraction and are also apparent for heavy snowfall events. In contrast, high-elevation regions could experience slight snowfall increases in midwinter for both emission scenarios despite the general decrease in the snowfall fraction. These increases in mean and heavy snowfall can be explained by a general increase in winter precipitation and by the fact that, with increasing temperatures, climatologically cold areas are shifted into a temperature interval which favours higher snowfall intensities. In general, percentage changes in snowfall indices are robust with respect to the RCM postprocessing strategy employed: similar results are obtained for raw, separated, and separated-bias-adjusted snowfall amounts. Absolute changes, however, can differ among these three methods.

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Long-term changes in annual maximum snow depth and snowfall in Switzerland based on extreme value statistics

Cited by 108 publications

References 41 publications

Patterns and trends of high-impact weather in China during 1959–2014

Patterns and trends of high-impact weather in China during 1959–2014

The European mountain cryosphere: A review of past, current and future issues

Future snowfall in the Alps: projections based on the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models

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