Long‐Term Changes in the Northern Midwinter Middle Atmosphere in Relation to the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation

Gabriel, Axel

doi:10.1029/2019jd030679

Cited by 5 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 90 publications

(156 reference statements)

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“…The weakening amplitude of the QBO cycle in most models and the MME can be explained by the increase in tropical upwelling accompanied with a strengthening Brewer‐Dobson circulation in response to more accumulated greenhouse gas concentration (Butchart et al, 2006; Kawatani et al, 2011; Kawatani & Hamilton, 2013). Although Gabriel (2019) identified that the QBO remains nearly unchanged in MPI‐ESM‐MR, we find that the QBO amplitude weakens in this model (Figure 4g). Latest studies provide more evidence that the QBO amplitude will weaken in the high‐emission scenario and 4 × CO 2 simulations (Butchart et al, 2020; Giorgetta, 2005; Richter, Anstey, et al, 2020; Richter, Butchart, et al, 2020), although our results further reveal that the QBO will also weaken in the moderate‐emission scenario and that the amplitude of the QBO easterlies will weaken more than that of the westerlies.…”

Section: Qbo Amplitude Changes In Historical and Future Simulationscontrasting

confidence: 72%

“…Gabriel (2019) suggests that the extratropical QBO signature changes toward the disappearance of the HT relationship based on one model, but we use a larger model ensemble and find a strengthened HT relationship. The different conclusions between Gabriel (2019) and this study might be caused by their different projected background circulations, periods of interest, model numbers, and experiment setups.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

“…Consistent with the stronger stratospheric HT relationship in the future, the projected surface response by the RCP85/SSP585 scenario in the North Atlantic‐European region (i.e., the NAO) will double in the future, implying that seasonal predictive skill for the North Atlantic and European region based on the phase of the QBO will increase. Gabriel (2019) suggests that the extratropical QBO signature changes toward the disappearance of the HT relationship based on one model, but we use a larger model ensemble and find a strengthened HT relationship. The different conclusions between Gabriel (2019) and this study might be caused by their different projected background circulations, periods of interest, model numbers, and experiment setups.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

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Projected Strengthening of the Extratropical Surface Impacts of the Stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation

Rao

Garfinkel

White

2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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Using state-of-the-art models with a spontaneous quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6), this study explores projected changes in the Holton-Tan (HT) relationship and the near-surface response to the QBO. Most models project an enhanced surface response to the QBO via a strengthened HT relationship in the future. Specifically, the North Atlantic Oscillation-like response is projected to double and shift eastward in the future in the high-end emission scenarios compared with the historical simulation. This strengthening occurs even as the amplitude of the QBO in the tropical stratosphere weakens from the historical simulation to the future projections. The seemingly contradictory projections of future changes in the QBO and the HT relationship might imply that the HT relationship changes nonlinearly with the QBO intensity, and the coherent changes in the background circulation structure should also be highlighted. Plain Language Summary Projecting the weather on subseasonal and seasonal time scales is extremely difficult yet essential for certain applications. Forecasting skill on these time scales relies on features in the climate system that persist for longer than 2 weeks, and one such feature is the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Here, we use Earth system model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) to demonstrate that the surface response to the QBO via the Holton-Tan (HT) relationship is projected to strengthen. Specifically, the North Atlantic Oscillation response is projected to double and shift eastward in the future in the high-end emission scenarios compared with the historical simulation. This strengthening is not due to a change in the QBO amplitude, as indeed most models project a weakening trend for the QBO amplitude and also a shortening trend for the QBO periodicity. The seemingly contradictory projections of future weakening of the QBO yet strengthening of the HT relationship suggest that the HT relationship will change nonlinearly with the QBO intensity, and the coherent changes in the background circulation structure should also be highlighted.

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Section: Qbo Amplitude Changes In Historical and Future Simulationscontrasting

confidence: 72%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

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Projected Strengthening of the Extratropical Surface Impacts of the Stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation

Rao

Garfinkel

White

2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…J. Gray et al, 2003;Hamilton, 1998;Holton & Austin, 1991;Naito et al, 2003;Niwano & Takahashi, 1998;O'Sullivan & Dunkerton, 1994;O'Sullivan & Young, 1992), with an increase in interest during the last decade (e.g., Anstey et al, 2021;Elsbury et al, 2021;Gabriel, 2019;Garfinkel et al, 2012;Hansen et al, 2013;Naoe & Yoshida, 2019;Rao et al, 2020;Watson & Gray, 2014). Anstey et al (2021) examined the H-T relationship using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models and reconfirmed the H-T relationship, but found it to be weaker than the observed response.…”

Section: The Holton-tan Effect and The Stratospheric Pathwaymentioning

confidence: 99%

QBO and ENSO Effects on the Mean Meridional Circulation, Polar Vortex, Subtropical Westerly Jets, and Wave Patterns During Boreal Winter

2022

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The joint influence of the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the polar vortex, subtropical westerly jets (STJs), and wave patterns during boreal winter is investigated in 40 years (1979–2018) of monthly mean ERA‐Interim reanalyses. The method of Wallace et al. (1993), https://doi.org/10.1175/15200469(1993)050%3C1751:ROTESQ%3E2.0.CO;2 is used to conduct a QBO phase angle sweep. QBO westerly (W) and easterly (E) composites are then segregated by the phase of ENSO. Two pathways are described by which the QBO mean meridional circulation (MMC) influences the northern winter hemisphere. The “stratospheric pathway” modulates stratospheric planetary wave absorption via the Holton‐Tan mechanism. The “tropospheric pathway” modulates the tropical and subtropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. QBO MMC anomalies exhibit a checkerboard pattern in temperature and arched structures in zonal wind which extend into midlatitudes, and are stronger on the winter side. During QBO W, the polar vortex and STJs are enhanced. QBO signals in the polar vortex are amplified during La Niña. During El Niño and QBO W, the strongest STJs occur, and a warm pole/wave two pattern is found. During El Niño and QBO E, a trough is found over Eurasia and a ridge over the North Atlantic, in a wave one pattern. El Niño diminishes QBO anomalies in the tropical stratosphere and reduces the poleward extent and amplitude of the QBO MMC, thereby influencing the stratospheric pathway. Effects on the boreal winter hemisphere are attributed to the combined influence of the QBO and ENSO via both pathways.

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“…Both parts of the BDC are caused by the action of atmospheric waves of various spatial and temporal scales [43]. In three-dimensional consideration, the Euler approach is used with timeaveraged (but not longitude-averaged) and vortex components [44,45].…”

Section: Stratospheric Meridional Circulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5

et al. 2021

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Simulations of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) coupled climate model 5th version for the period from 2015 to 2100 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gases growth are analyzed to investigate changes of Arctic polar stratospheric vortex, planetary wave propagation, Sudden Stratospheric Warming frequency, Final Warming dates, and meridional circulation. Strengthening of wave activity propagation and a stationary planetary wave number 1 in the middle and upper stratosphere, acceleration of meridional circulation, an increase of winter mean polar stratospheric volume (Vpsc) and strengthening of Arctic stratosphere interannual variability after the middle of 21st century, especially under a severe scenario, were revealed. March monthly values of Vpsc in some winters could be about two times more than observed ones in the Arctic stratosphere in the spring of 2011 and 2020, which in turn could lead to large ozone layer destruction. Composite analysis shows that “warm” winters with the least winter mean Vpsc values are characterized by strengthening of wave activity propagation from the troposphere into the stratosphere in December but weaker propagation in January–February in comparison with winters having the largest Vpsc values.

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Long‐Term Changes in the Northern Midwinter Middle Atmosphere in Relation to the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation

Cited by 5 publications

References 90 publications

Projected Strengthening of the Extratropical Surface Impacts of the Stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation

Projected Strengthening of the Extratropical Surface Impacts of the Stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation

QBO and ENSO Effects on the Mean Meridional Circulation, Polar Vortex, Subtropical Westerly Jets, and Wave Patterns During Boreal Winter

Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5

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