Long Term Demand Forecasting System for Demand Driven Manufacturing

Abstract

Demand-Driven Manufacturing (DDM) is the solution that most companies are heading to in our days. Although this strategy consists of producing goods based on what consumers demand, companies should also rely on accurate forecasting systems to prepare their production chain for such an operation by supplying enough raw material, increasing production capacity to fit the desired demand, etc.… However, due to the fact that most companies have been relying on massive production, most sales forecasting systems usually used rely on sales data of previous years that, not only contain the actual demand, but takes into consideration the marketing strategy effects like massive promotions. Hence, the resulting forecasts do not mainly reflect consumers' demand. For this reason, a switch to demand forecasting, instead of sales forecasting, is essential to ensure a good transition to DDM. This paper proposes an artificial intelligence based demand forecasting system that aims to determine "potential sales", mainly reflecting consumers' demand, by correcting historical sales data from external variables' effects. A comparison with other sales forecasting models is performed and validated on real data of a French fashion retailer. Results show that the proposed system is both robust and accurate, and it outperforms all the other models in terms of forecasting errors.

The Optimization of Power Generation Mix To Achieve Net Zero Emission Pathway in Indonesia Without Specific Time Target

“…There are a considerable amount of research dedicated to achieving the optimization of energy systems through the utilization of LEAP software, there are Sani et al [29], Adiprasetya et al [30], Handayani et al [31], Karunanithi et al [32], El-sayed [33], Santosa et al [15], and Rivera-gons et al [16], and Ren et al [34].The Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) software optimizes power generation mix to satisfy energy needs using the Next Energy Modelling System Optimization (NEMO) Optimizer [35]. The demand-driven method is utilized by LEAP and some energy system projection software [36], where the amount of final electricity demand defines quantity of capacity and electricity production to be generated as well as kind of power plant to be employed. The amount of electrical demand that will be generated must therefore be projected, and this amount is decided by projection of energy demand in industrial, transportation, home, and commercial sectors.…”

“…These new power plants will replace coal power plants as the main source to meet electricity baseload [49]. Renewable energy output is intermittent, requiring energy storage facilities like pumped storage and battery storage to be Achieve 1% Energy Intensity reduction per annum till 2025 [34,36] prevalent in power generation [50]. Renewable energy sources are variable and intermittent due to their reliance on weather and climate [51].…”