Long-term development of the global energy sector under the influence of energy policies and technological progress

Abstract

The world energy sector is entering a period of transformation, defined by the emergence of a whole range of cost-effective technologies and the formation of new state priorities that can radically change the structure of energy use. The calculations of the development of world energy markets for the period up to 2040 were made using economic and mathematical optimization modeling based on the ERI RAS SCANER model complex, for two scenarios: Conservative (maintaining key benchmarks and regulatory measures within the framework of existing energy policies, as well as incremental development of technologies without major breakthroughs) and Energy Transition (assuming ambitious goals in the field of reducing emissions, as well as accelerated technology development). The results of calculations show that the growth rate of primary energy consumption will slow down significantly. Renewable energy sources (RES) will be able to provide up to 35–50% of electricity production and up to a quarter of the world’s energy consumption by 2040, while the share of fossil fuels will decline. Oil and coal will pass the peak of consumption before 2040. This will not only lead to a radical change in the price environment of energy markets, but also to a transformation of the way they are organized and regulated, as well as to a revision of business models of most energy companies.

Renewable Energy, Economic Growth and Economic Development Nexus: A Bibliometric Analysis

“…[213] studied the decision-making between financing and not financing renewable energy matrices on the African continent and concluded that investor confidence in regulatory effectiveness is the main concern, besides local construction capacity and political instruments [213]. In non-quantitative approaches, there are also studies without a sample directed to country/continent, such as [214][215][216][217][218][219]. Ref.…”

“…[219] proposes two scenarios, a conservative one in which there is no change in the current situation of energy production and a transition, which assumes ambitious targets in the evolution and incentives of renewable energies. The results show that renewable sources may be responsible for providing between 35 and 50% of the world's electricity production by 2040, while the share of fossil fuels tends to decrease [219]. Ref.…”

The challenges of sustainable energy transition: A focus on renewable energy

“…The International Energy Outlook 2017 predicts that, between now and 2040, the usage of renewable energy will expand more than any other energy source [131] . Over the period of 2015-2040, hydropower and other renewables are expected to expand at a faster rate than any other type of energy production, by an average of 2.8% year, thanks to technology advancements and government incentives in many nations [132] . As renewable energy technology develops, its price drops and its market share grow in many nations.…”

Perspectives of decarbonization of world economy in the context of implementation of the UN Paris Climate agreement

“…The project results helped to formulate a number of provisions of the Paris Agreement. Further studies of the deep decarbonization potential of various countries continued under several large-scale international research projects [Fragkos et al, 2020;Pahle et al, 2021;Schaeffer et al, 2020], studies of Russian and international scientific groups [Bashmakov, 2020;CENEf, 2009;Makarov, Chen, Paltsev, 2020;Makarov, Mitrova, Kulagin, 2020;Safonov et al, 2020].…”