Long-term Energy System Modelling for a Clean Energy Transition and Improved Energy Security in Botswana’s Energy Sector using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source Energy Modelling System)

Abstract

Botswana heavily relies on coal for electricity, resulting in significant carbon emissions. With 40% of electricity sourced from imported fossil fuels, the nation faces vulnerability to volatile prices and supply instability. To address this, leveraging abundant solar resources could decarbonise and enhance energy security. However, an unexplored cost-effective strategy hinders progress. This study utilises the Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) to analyse costs, energy generation, and fuel requirements for Botswana's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and energy security goals up to 2050. Six scenarios—Least Cost (LC), Business-As-Usual (BAU), Net Zero by 2050 (NZ), Coal Phase Out by 2045 (CPO), Fossil Fuel Phase Out by 2045 (FFPO), and Import Phase Out by 2045 (IMPPO)—are compared. Solar technologies, especially in the NZ and IMPPO scenarios, demonstrate significance. Achieving Fossil Fuel Phase Out by 2045 (FFPO) is cost-effective, saving $31 million and incurring $2 billion less in investment compared to BAU. Yet, for Botswana to decarbonise and improve energy security without import reliance, NZ and IMPPO pathways are preferable, though they require higher capital investment, necessitating private sector financing. Recommended policies include detailed solar PV and storage strategies, updated renewable energy (RE) targets, coal and natural gas phase-outs, and an enhanced regulatory role for the Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority (BERA).