Long-Term Hydropower Generation of Cascade Reservoirs under Future Climate Changes in Jinsha River in Southwest China

Yang, Feng; Zhou, Jianzhong; Li, Mo; Yuan, Zhe; Zhang, Peilun; Wu, J.; Wang, Chao; Wang, Yongqiang

doi:10.3390/w10020235

Cited by 23 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…These data sets are currently used extensively in China in many research fields. For example, they have been used to study climate change (Duan & Xiao, ; Miao, Sun, et al, ; Sun et al, ), to evaluate satellite‐related precipitation products (R. C. Sun et al, ), to project future climate change (Feng et al, ; Yin et al, ), to investigate changes in the ecological environment (Tong et al, ; Zhang et al, ), and so on.…”

Section: Study Area and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Events in the Three‐Rivers Headwater Region, China

Yang

Miao

et al. 2018

JGR Atmospheres

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Extreme climate events affect sustainable development in many parts of the world. Although several studies of local extreme climate events exist, such events need more thorough investigation. Detailed studies of climatic variations that assess changes on both spatial and temporal scales are becoming increasingly necessary. In this study, 14 indices for extreme temperature and 12 indices for extreme precipitation were used to analyze the spatial distribution and temporal trends of extreme climate events in the three‐rivers headwater region (TRHR), China, over the past five decades. We found that the frequency of high temperature extremes has increased, whereas the frequency of dry extremes has decreased. Statistically significant upward trends emerged for the number of warm nights (TN90p) and the number of warm days (TX90p) in the TRHR, which increased at a rate of 11.75 and 6.79 days/10 years (p < 0.05), respectively. We also found a highly significant downward trend in the number of consecutive dry days with a rate of −4.05 days/10 years across the whole region. Overall, the TRHR has become warmer and wetter over the past 50 years and the frequency of extreme events has increased. Wavelet analysis indicated that there are significant relationships between extreme climate events in the TRHR and large‐scale ocean‐atmosphere circulation patterns, for example, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Our findings will help local water managers and stakeholders ensure that there are effective measures in place to adapt to and mitigate the effects of potential future climate change in the TRHR.

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Section: Study Area and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Events in the Three‐Rivers Headwater Region, China

Yang

Miao

et al. 2018

JGR Atmospheres

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“…In the summer of 1998, flooding of the Yangtze River caused about 3700 deaths, inundated 21.2 million ha of land and caused in excess of US$30 billion in total direct economic losses [23]. Therefore, planning for climate change's impacts on water resources and flooding in the Yangtze River basin is essential.The potential impact of climate change on streamflow in the Yangtze River basin has been evaluated in several previous studies at the whole basin or sub-basin scale [24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. These studies differ in the selection of global climate models (GCMs), emission scenarios, downscaling method, bias correction method, and hydrological model.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Yang

et al. 2018

Water

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This paper estimates the likely impacts of future climate change on streamflow, especially the hydrological extremes over the Yangtze River basin. The future climate was projected by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment in East Asia (CORDEX-EA) initiative for the periods 2020–2049 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. The bias corrected outputs from five regional climate models (RCMs) were used in conjunction with the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model to produce hydrological projections. For the future climate of the Yangtze River basin, outputs from an ensemble of RCMs indicate that the annual mean temperature will increase for 2020–2049 by 1.81 °C for RCP4.5 and by 2.26 °C for RCP8.5. The annual mean precipitation is projected to increase by 3.62% under RCP4.5 and 7.65% under RCP8.5. Overall, increases in precipitation are amplified in streamflow, and the change in streamflow also shows significant temporal and spatial variations and large divergence between regional climate models. At the same time, the maximum streamflow in different durations are also projected to increase at three mainstream gauging stations based on flood frequency analysis. In particular, larger increases in maximum 1-day streamflow (+14.24% on average) compared to 5-day and 15-day water volumes (+12.79% and +10.24%) indicate that this projected extreme streamflow increase would be primarily due to intense short-period rainfall events. It is necessary to consider the impacts of climate change in future water resource management.

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“…In the long-term joint dispatching of cascade reservoirs, the streamflow lag time between cascade reservoirs is often much smaller than the time span of the scheduling scheme. For this reason, the streamflow propagation time is often neglected [30]- [32]. But in short-term or real-time generation dispatching, the lag time and the time span are close [18].…”

Section: A Lag Time (Lt) Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterizing the Hydraulic Connection of Cascade Reservoirs for Short-Term Generation Dispatching via Gaussian Process Regression

et al. 2020

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The characterization of the mapping relationship (MR) between outflow of the upstream reservoir (OUR) and inflow of the downstream reservoir (IDR) in the short-term generation dispatching of cascade reservoirs (SGDCR) greatly impacts the safe and economic operation of hydropower plants. If this MR is not characterized properly, the operation process of hydropower stations will deviate from the planning dispatching schemes. Especially when the upstream reservoir (UR) undertakes peak load regulation tasks frequently and the downstream reservoir (DR) owns weak re-regulation capacity, the safety of cascade reservoirs will be seriously threatened. In this extreme system, the commonest characterizing models in SGDCR, such as the lag time (LT) model and the Muskingum model, may cause a huge deviation when simulating or forecasting the IDR. Given this dilemma, the Gaussian process regression (GPR) model, which is a representative for Bayesian regression methods, is firstly introduced to handle this MR and compared with the LT and the Muskingum model in this paper. The Three Gorges-Gezhouba cascade reservoirs (TGGCR) in China are selected as a typical case study. The performance indicators of four categories are adopted to evaluate the simulated IDR in a single period and a set of pivotal indicators are proposed to estimate the simulation dispatching in multiple periods. The results show that (1) The GPR model reduces the mean absolute deviation (MAD) about inflow of Gezhouba by 197m 3 /s and 263m 3 /s than the LT and the Muskingum model respectively; (2) The distribution characteristics of inflow deviation produced by the GPR model are most competitive. Meanwhile, the GPR model has the strongest ability when conducting the multi-period simulation dispatching and owns best applicability on the whole range of streamflow. (3) The Muskingum model is not recommended to characterize the hour-scale hydraulic connection in the extreme system of SGDCR. INDEX TERMS cascade reservoirs, short-term generation dispatching, hour-scale hydraulic connection, Gaussian process regression.

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Long-Term Hydropower Generation of Cascade Reservoirs under Future Climate Changes in Jinsha River in Southwest China

Cited by 23 publications

References 45 publications

Spatiotemporal Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Events in the Three‐Rivers Headwater Region, China

Spatiotemporal Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Events in the Three‐Rivers Headwater Region, China

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Characterizing the Hydraulic Connection of Cascade Reservoirs for Short-Term Generation Dispatching via Gaussian Process Regression

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