Long-term impact of natural disasters on Vietnamese income per capita: the case of typhoon Durian

Abstract

This study estimates the effect of natural disasters on Vietnamese income per capita in both short and long-term. The analysis also evaluates the effects by sources of income including income from salary; income from agriculture, fishery, forest; and income from industry, construction, trade, and services. Typhoon Durian happened in December 2006 in southern provinces of Vietnam is chosen for the comparative case study. The analysis applies the Synthetic control method (SCM) to construct a counterfactual with respect to two different control groups and conducts a permutation test for the estimated values. The results show that typhoon Durian decreased aggregate income per capita of the affected region and the effect was long lasting. The reduction of monthly income per capita was estimated to be 56,925 VND which accounts for 7.9% of the total income. The most affected source of income is from agriculture, forestry, and fishery.

Dynamics of Malaysia’s Bilateral Export Post Covid-19: A Gravity Model Analysis

“…International trade, however, subject to market demands and supply factors such as income (Morland et al 2020;Zainuddin & Zaidi 2020), prices (Tee et al 2018;Sugiharti et al 2020), exchange rate (Ghani & Sofyan 2014;Baek & Choi 2020), and trade policies (Boysen-Urban et al 2019;Zainuddin et al 2019). In addition, international trade also affected by several external factors such as natural disasters (Nguyen & Pham 2020;Chang & Zhang 2020), economic and financial crisis (Pattnaik et al 2020;Nasrullah et al 2020), and also health crisis such as the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003 (Lee & McKibbin 2004;Fernandes & Tang 2020).…”