Long-term inter-annual variability of a cyclonic gyre in the western Irish Sea

Olbert, Agnieszka Indiana; Hartnett, Michael; Dabrowski, Tomasz; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

doi:10.1016/j.csr.2011.05.010

Cited by 17 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…If the most recent 10 years are taken into account, the SST in the Celtic Sea has undergone an annual increase of 0.33 • C (±0.02), while in the west of Scotland the average annual increase is 0.54 • C (±0.04). These results are coincident with the global SST trend and with the general trend in other studies carried out in Irish waters (Cannaby and Hüsrevoglu, 2009;Nolan et al, 2010;Olbert et al, 2011Olbert et al, , 2012. Annual anomalies referenced to the 1971-2000 climatologies along with the error standard deviations for every year were also produced.…”

Section: Products For Fisheriessupporting

confidence: 57%

Ocean modelling for aquaculture and fisheries in Irish waters

et al. 2016

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Abstract. The Marine Institute, Ireland, runs a suite of operational regional and coastal ocean models. Recent developments include several tailored products that focus on the key needs of the Irish aquaculture sector. In this article, an overview of the products and services derived from the models are presented. The authors give an overview of a shellfish model developed in-house and that was designed to predict the growth, the physiological interactions with the ecosystem, and the level of coliform contamination of the blue mussel. As such, this model is applicable in studies on the carrying capacity of embayments, assessment of the impacts of pollution on aquaculture grounds, and the determination of shellfish water classes. Further services include the assimilation of the model-predicted shelf water movement into a new harmful algal bloom alert system used to inform end users of potential toxic shellfish events and high biomass blooms that include fish-killing species. Models are also used to identify potential sites for offshore aquaculture, to inform studies of potential cross-contamination in farms from the dispersal of planktonic sea lice larvae and other pathogens that can infect finfish, and to provide modelled products that underpin the assessment and advisory services on the sustainable exploitation of the resources of marine fisheries. This paper demonstrates that ocean models can provide an invaluable contribution to the sustainable blue growth of aquaculture and fisheries.

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Section: Products For Fisheriessupporting

confidence: 57%

Ocean modelling for aquaculture and fisheries in Irish waters

et al. 2016

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“…Sherwin (1987) along the east coast of Ireland and is therefore responsible for reversing the general northwards net flow. More details on the structure of the flow can be found in Hill et al (1996Hill et al ( , 1997, Horsburgh et al (2000) and Olbert et al (2011).…”

Section: Irish Sea Hydrographymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Technical details of the ECOMSED model can be found in Blumberg and Mellor (1987). A previous hindcast model study of the Irish Sea climate (Olbert et al, 2011) using the same models and downscaling approach proved that the downscaling performs well at a 10:1 reduction in grid size.…”

Section: Ecomsed Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Temperature is one of the most important climate variables. In the Irish Sea, temperature is responsible for seasonal stratification and consequently for circulation patterns (Olbert et al, 2011). These features, however, may change in response to future climate changes with potentially significant effects on the local hydrography.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A study on the long-term variability of the gyre in the western Irish Sea (WIS) showed that an increase of water temperature is followed by strengthening of stratification and, consequently, changes in the gyre structure, circulation patterns and retentive properties of the western Irish Sea (Olbert et al, 2011). Initial investigations into the effect of changes within the western Irish Sea on the entire sea suggested good correlation between strengthening of the gyre and changes to the net flow through the sea.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional modelling of the 21st century climate changes in the Irish Sea

Olbert

Dabrowski

Hartnett

2012

Continental Shelf Research

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An assessment of the complex evolution of climate change signals in the Irish Sea over the 21 st century is presented in this paper. Potential impacts of climate change on the local hydrography are explored and interrelationships between fundamental oceanographic shelf sea phenomena investigated. A regional ECOMSED ocean model is used to downscale a 120-year period of the SRES A1B scenario experiment from a global ocean model. A detailed regional analysis shows that local climate changes may be significantly different from the expected global changes.This research suggests that in the future the Irish Sea will be warmer with sea surface temperature increase of around 1.9˚C. Maxima and minima annual temperatures will occur around 2 weeks later each year relative to the present climate. Geographically, shallow waters along the coastline and in the eastern Irish Sea will exhibit strongest warming due to increased heat uptake during summer and autumn and reduced heat loss in spring and winter. Warming in the deep channel in the western Irish Sea will be generally weaker with seasonal variability subdued due to a large heat storage capacity. The warming will be largely stored in the surface layer of the water column leading to strengthening of stratification and a considerable decrease in the thickness of the mixed layer. The western Irish Sea gyre will become stronger and result in substantial reinforcement (>30%) of southward currents along the east coast of Ireland. Net northward flow in future climate will be maintained at the 2 current annual rate. Steric sea level is projected to rise by 0.31m during the 21 st century, leading to an overall projected sea level rise of approximately of 0.47m.Future changes to oceanographic parameters, flushing times and hydrodynamics of the Irish Sea are likely to alter the habitat and distribution of marine species; the finding of this research are therefore of great interest to ecologists and the fishery industry.

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