Long-term labor market returns to upper secondary school track choice: Leveraging idiosyncratic variation in peers’ choices

Birkelund, Jesper Fels; Werfhorst, Herman G. van de

doi:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2021.102629

Cited by 11 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Fourth, as explained in the methods section, the LATE may deviate from the average effect for the overall sample. For instance, it is often presumed that peer effects are more prominent among students that are uncertain about their educational choices (Rosenqvist, 2018;Birkelund and van de Werfhorst, 2022). A potential explanation may therefore be that vocational education is less effective in terms of learning for these compliers, perhaps because they are also more uncertain about their occupational aspirations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indeed, there is ample empirical evidence on strong peer effects related to students' educational choices (Rosenqvist, 2018;Andersen and Hjortskov, 2022). The literature points to several channels that may explain these effects, such as through the provision of information about different educational options or the normative influence students may have on their friends (Rosenqvist, 2018;Birkelund and van de Werfhorst, 2022). However, the exogeneity of this instrument may be violated if there is a relation between the unobserved characteristics that determine selection into schools and those that determine the selection in vocational programmes.…”

Section: Model Specification and Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Vocational education, general education, and on-the-job learning over the life cycle

Tobback

Verhaest

Baert

et al. 2023

European Sociological Review

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We investigate whether vocationally and generally educated individuals differ in their on-the-job learning and how this difference evolves over the career. To this end, we exploit the European Skills and Jobs Survey dataset and rely on instrumental variable estimation. While our descriptive results suggest that workers with a vocational degree experience on average more learning, this conclusion largely changes once endogeneity is taken into account. First, we find that, immediately after graduation, workers with a vocational education are less likely to further improve their skills in their jobs. Second, while this gap in on-the-job learning gradually fades over time, it takes almost a full career to catch up in terms of further on-the-job learning with those with a general degree. Finally, the effects are driven by individuals residing in dual system countries and those with a programme involving workplace learning. We argue that these results are likely explained by a combination of compensating (because vocationally educated obtained their specific skills already during education) and complementary (because general skills lay down a foundation for further learning) effects.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Specification and Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vocational education, general education, and on-the-job learning over the life cycle

Tobback

Verhaest

Baert

et al. 2023

European Sociological Review

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show abstract

“…They find higher earnings for vocational education early in life, but a reversal in favor of academic education occurring before age 30. 2 Birkelund and van de Werfhorst (2022) analyze Danish data using an instrumental variable approach that relies on random variation in school peers' educational decisions. They find that vocational education diverts students on the margin to the academic track away from higher-status but not higher-paying occupations and protects students on the margin to leaving school from risks of non-employment and unskilled work, which leads to higher earnings.…”

Section: Review Of Empirical Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…3 In sum, studies with more thorough causal identification show some initial advantages of vocational education and small differences among mid-career workers. These studies provide important contributions in terms of identifying causal effects, but it should be noted that some of them (Birkelund and van de Werfhorst 2022;Silliman and Virtanen 2022) analyze local treatment effects concerning students on the edge of admission to academic education instead of track effects on the average student.…”

Section: Review Of Empirical Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are upper-secondary track decisions risky? Evidence from Sweden on the assumptions of risk-aversion models

Andersson

Barone

Hällsten

2023

Rationality and Society

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Relative risk aversion (RRA) models explain social class inequalities in education with risk avoidance, i.e., the risky choice assumption (RCA). This assumption concerns risks related to more ambitious educational choices and has been subject to little explicit scrutiny. In this paper, we test whether or not vocational education is a safety net that protects from labor market marginalization. We present an empirical assessment of upper-secondary track choices in Sweden, contrasting the vocational and the academic tracks for those not pursuing tertiary educational degrees. We use Swedish administrative data for all siblings born 1972–1980 and fit sibling fixed effects models netting out unobserved time-constant confounders. The only evidence in favor of the RCA is that when considering selection, graduates of the academic track without a tertiary degree initially face higher risks of not being stably employed and registered as unemployed in their early 20s than their counterparts from vocational education. However, the academic tracks significantly protect men from the threat of entering unskilled routine occupations. We conclude that the support for the RCA is scant at best.

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“…We test for consistency with as-good-as-random assignment of treatment in order to assess whether our treatment is randomly distributed across student categories (e.g., based on gender, ethnic origin, socioeconomic status); A low degree of selection and a rich set of controls support the plausibility of the lack of relevant omitted variable bias.6 Reflection is not an issue as outlined byHernán and Robins (2006). First, IV estimation does not rely on assumptions about the causal ordering between the instrument and the endogenous regressor (Birkelund & van de Werfhorst 2022)…”

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confidence: 99%

The stricter the better? The impact of early teacher grading standards on students’ competences development and academic track enrollment

Lievore¹,

Fedeli²,

Triventi³

2023

Preprint

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Despite the growing attention on teachers’ grading practices in educational research, less attention has been dedicated to the consequences of teachers’ grading standards on students’ educational outcomes, especially in early stages of their scholastic career. This paper aims at filling this gap, analyzing the impact of teacher’s severity in grading on students’ competences development and academic track enrollment, and how it varies according to students’ gender, socio-economic background and immigrant status. The analysis relies on Italian INVALSI-SNV data: information on 5th graders and their teachers are linked, and pupils are followed up to 8th and 10th grade, in which their competences and school track are recorded. Trough 2SLS regressions we demonstrate that being exposed to stricter grading in 5th grade leads to higher students’ competences later on, and to higher probability to enroll in the most prestigious academic track, with no notable heterogeneous effects across students with different sociodemographic characteristics.

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Long-term labor market returns to upper secondary school track choice: Leveraging idiosyncratic variation in peers’ choices

Cited by 11 publications

References 38 publications

Vocational education, general education, and on-the-job learning over the life cycle

Vocational education, general education, and on-the-job learning over the life cycle

Are upper-secondary track decisions risky? Evidence from Sweden on the assumptions of risk-aversion models

The stricter the better? The impact of early teacher grading standards on students’ competences development and academic track enrollment

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