Long-Term Modulation of Solar Cycles

Biswas, Akash; Karak, Bidya Binay; Usoskin, Ilya; Weisshaar, E.

doi:10.1007/s11214-023-00968-w

Cited by 31 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 137 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The mechanism involves the production of upward bulges at selected longitudes in the overshoot tachocline that contain significant toroidal fields. For a review of long-term modulation of the solar cycle, see Biswas et al (2023).…”

Section: Short-term Solar Cycle Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar Cycle Observations

Norton,

Howe,

Upton

et al. 2023

Space Sci Rev

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We describe the defining observations of the solar cycle that provide constraints for the dynamo processes operating within the Sun. Specifically, we report on the following topics: historical sunspot numbers and revisions; active region (AR) flux ranges and lifetimes; bipolar magnetic region tilt angles; Hale and Joy’s law; the impact of rogue ARs on cycle progression and the amplitude of the following cycle; the spatio-temporal emergence of ARs that creates the butterfly diagram; polar fields; large-scale flows including zonal, meridional, and AR in-flows; short-term cycle variability; and helioseismic results including mode parameter changes.

show abstract

Section: Short-term Solar Cycle Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar Cycle Observations

Norton,

Howe,

Upton

et al. 2023

Space Sci Rev

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Simultaneously, temperatures appear to have dropped at ~ 230-year intervals throughout the period investigated, potentially in relation to periodic changes in Holocene solar activity. The 210-year Suess/de Vries cycle has been detected most frequently in Holocene paleoenvironmental proxies 48 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mid-to-late Holocene climate variability in coastal East Asia and its impact on ancient Korean societies

Park,

Bahk,

Park

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The sustainability of human societies is contingent upon our ability to accurately predict the effects of future climate change on the global environment and humanity. Wise responses to forthcoming environmental alterations require extensive knowledge from historical precedents. However, in coastal East Asia, a region with a long history of agriculture, it is challenging to obtain paleoenvironmental proxy data without anthropogenic disturbances that can be used to assess the impact of late Holocene climate change on local communities. This study introduces a high-resolution multi-proxy sedimentary record from an isolated crater in Jeju Island, Korea, to elucidate the mechanisms underlying mid-to-late Holocene climate change and its impacts on ancient societies. Our findings suggest that hydroclimate changes were predominantly governed by sea surface temperature fluctuations in the western tropical Pacific, with low-frequency variability in solar activity and a decrease in summer insolation identified as primary drivers of temperature change. Moreover, ancient societies on the Korean peninsula were significantly affected by recurring cooling events, including the 2.8 ka event, 2.3 ka event, Late Antique Little Ice Age, maunder minimum, and others.

show abstract

“…This could be due to the modulation effects of the Gleissberg century cycle. The Gleissberg cycle is a solar phenomenon marked by longerterm fluctuations in sunspot activity, spanning approximately 80-100 yr (Peristykh & Damon 2003;Ogurtsov 2004;Biswas et al 2023b). This cycle represents a modulation of the regular It is worth noting that both the Transformer and Informer models predicted Gnevyshev peaks for Solar Cycle 25, and the reasons for this phenomenon are highly worthy of discussion as well.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Improved Prediction of Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Using the Informer Model: Gnevyshev Peaks and North–South Asymmetry

Cao,

Xu,

Deng

et al. 2024

ApJ

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Forecasting the amplitude and timing of the sunspot cycle is highly important for solar physics and space weather applications, but high-precision prediction of solar magnetic activity has remained an outstanding challenge. The Informer model, as the most advanced deep learning technique, is an ideal approach for predicting solar activity cycle. Using the whole-disk sunspot numbers (SSNs) between 1749 and 2023 and the hemispheric SSNs between 1992 and 2023, the amplitudes and timings of Solar Cycles 25 and 26 are predicted by the Informer model. The main results are the following: (1) the activity levels of Solar Cycles 25 and 26 continue being weak-moderate cycles with their strengths stronger than Solar Cycle 24, implying that the long-term solar variability is significantly modulated in length and magnitude by the Gleissberg century cycle; (2) the Gnevyshev peaks of Solar Cycles 25 and 26 are clearly observed with a higher value in the second peak, suggesting that the numbers of the large sunspot groups are greater compared to the small sunspot groups in these two cycles; and (3) during Solar Cycle 25, the activity level in the southern hemisphere is predicted to be stronger than that in the northern one, revealing significant asymmetry and asynchronization between the two hemispheres. Our analysis results show that solar cycle predictions can be made more accurate if performed separately for each hemisphere. Furthermore, Solar Cycles 25 and 26 are likely to be weak-moderate cycles, in agreement with the precursor-based and model-based prediction methods.

show abstract

Long-Term Modulation of Solar Cycles

Cited by 31 publications

References 137 publications

Solar Cycle Observations

Solar Cycle Observations

Mid-to-late Holocene climate variability in coastal East Asia and its impact on ancient Korean societies

An Improved Prediction of Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Using the Informer Model: Gnevyshev Peaks and North–South Asymmetry

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About