Long‐term occurrence probabilities of intense geomagnetic storm events

Tsubouchi, Kazuo; Omura, Yoshiharu

doi:10.1029/2007sw000329

Cited by 87 publications

(115 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…It provides a statistical characterization in terms of generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions (GPDs). Pioneering application to space weather includes the F10.7 index (Vedder & Tabor, 1992), the half-daily aa index (Silbergleit, 1999;Siscoe, 1976), and the D ST index (Silbergleit, 1996;Tsubouchi & Omura, 2007). Another application of EVT in the context of space weather has been to energetic electron fluxes (Koons, 2001;Meredith et al, 2015), which also established an unexpected upper bound to the flux of relativistic killer electrons (O'Brien et al, 2007).…”

Section: 1029/2018sw001884mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The mean excess dependence on threshold for D ST was previously used by Tsubouchi and Omura (2007) to identify the threshold to obtain a GPD fit for a preselected subset of the observations that identified the most intense events. These most intense events fall into the region of the distribution (see Figure 5 for −D ST ) where there is a solar cycle dependent roll-off at the largest values.…”

Section: Gpd Fits To the Distribution Tailsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reproducible Aspects of the Climate of Space Weather Over the Last Five Solar Cycles

2018

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Each solar maximum interval has a different duration and peak activity level, which is reflected in the behavior of key physical variables that characterize solar and solar wind driving and magnetospheric response. The variation in the statistical distributions of the F10.7 index of solar coronal radio emissions, the dynamic pressure P Dyn and effective convection electric field E y in the solar wind observed in situ upstream of Earth, the ring current index D ST , and the high-latitude auroral activity index AE are tracked across the last five solar maxima. For each physical variable we find that the distribution tail (the exceedences above a threshold) can be rescaled onto a single master distribution using the mean and variance specific to each solar maximum interval. We provide generalized Pareto distribution fits to the different master distributions for each of the variables. If the mean and variance of the large-to-extreme observations can be predicted for a given solar maximum, then their full distribution is known.Plain Language Summary Earth's near-space plasma environment is highly dynamic, with its own space weather. Space weather impacts include electrical power loss, aviation disruption, interrupted communications, and disturbance to satellite systems. The drivers of space weather, the sun and solar wind, and the response seen at Earth have now been almost continually monitored by ground-and space-based observations over the last five solar cycles (more than 50 years). Each of the last five solar maxima has a different duration and peak activity level and as a consequence the climate of Earth's space weather is also different at each solar maximum. We find that some aspects of the space weather climate are in fact reproducible; they can be inferred from that of previous solar maxima. This may help understand the behavior of future solar maxima.

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Section: 1029/2018sw001884mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Gpd Fits To the Distribution Tailsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reproducible Aspects of the Climate of Space Weather Over the Last Five Solar Cycles

2018

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“…Therefore, the power law expression is not appropriate to estimate the magnitude of extremely intense magnetic phenomena which could cause severe ground-induced currents. Tsubouchi and Omura (2007) derived the expected maximum storm level from the probability density function of extreme storms and estimated Dst change of the maximum storm once in two centuries at 721.2 ± 154.4 nT. Love et al (2015) estimated extreme-event probabilities from fits of lognormal functions of Dst data for years 1957-2012. But the confidence limits on forecasts remain wide due to few data.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Frequency distributions of magnetic storms and SI+SSC-derived records at Kakioka, Memambetsu, and Kanoya

2015

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The Japan Meteorological Agency keeps records of geomagnetic phenomena observed at Kakioka (magnetic latitude, 27.47°), Memambetsu (magnetic latitude, 35.44°), and Kanoya (magnetic latitude, 22.00°). We used these records to examine the cumulative frequency distribution of magnetic storms, sudden impulses, and storm sudden commencements. The distributions of magnetic storms resemble the Gutenberg-Richter relation between earthquake frequency and magnitude used in seismology. The coefficients determined with the maximum likelihood method show that when the H-range of a magnetic storm at Kakioka is doubled, the frequency of the magnetic storm is about one seventh, for example. Intense magnetic storms occur less frequently than calculated by the functions. This statistical analysis proves that there are no significant differences between slopes of the frequency distribution functions of the magnetic phenomena at Kakioka, Memambetsu, and Kanoya.

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“…The theory of wave-particle interactions in the magnetosphere has been reviewed recently by Trakhtengerts and Rycroft (2008). A probabilistic assessment on likely future storm occurrence is one of the top priorities for space weather forecasting (Tsubouchi and Omura 2007).…”

Section: Magnetospheric Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space Weather: Physics, Effects and Predictability

2010

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The time varying conditions in the near-Earth space environment that may affect space-borne or ground-based technological systems and may endanger human health or life are referred to as space weather. Space weather effects arise from the dynamic and highly variable conditions in the geospace environment starting from explosive events on the Sun (solar flares), Coronal Mass Ejections near the Sun in the interplanetary medium, and various energetic effects in the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere system. As the utilization of space has become part of our everyday lives, and as our lives have become increasingly dependent on technological systems vulnerable to the space weather influences, the understanding and prediction of hazards posed by these active solar events have grown in importance. In this paper, we review the processes of the Sun-Earth interactions, the dynamic conditions within the magnetosphere, and the predictability of space weather effects on radio waves, satellites and ground-based technological systems today.

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Long‐term occurrence probabilities of intense geomagnetic storm events

Cited by 87 publications

References 23 publications

Reproducible Aspects of the Climate of Space Weather Over the Last Five Solar Cycles

Reproducible Aspects of the Climate of Space Weather Over the Last Five Solar Cycles

Frequency distributions of magnetic storms and SI+SSC-derived records at Kakioka, Memambetsu, and Kanoya

Space Weather: Physics, Effects and Predictability

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