2005
DOI: 10.1007/11427469_165
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Long-Term Prediction of Discharges in Manwan Reservoir Using Artificial Neural Network Models

Abstract: Several artificial neural network (ANN) models with a feed-forward, back-propagation network structure and various training algorithms, are developed to forecast daily and monthly river flow discharges in Manwan Reservoir. In order to test the applicability of these models, they are compared with a conventional time series flow prediction model. Results indicate that the ANN models provide better accuracy in forecasting river flow than does the auto-regression time series model. In particular, the scaled conju… Show more

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Cited by 124 publications
(66 citation statements)
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“…The ANNs, and in particular, the feed forward backward propagation perceptrons, are widely applied in different fields during the past decade (Arditi et al, 1998;Thirumalaiah and Deo, 1998;Chau and Cheng, 2002;Cheng et al, 2005;Lin et al, 2006;Muttil and Chau, 2006;Wu and Chau, 2006;Xie et al, 1006;Chau, 2007). It appears that the multi-layer perceptrons can be trained to approximate and accurately generalize virtually any smooth, measurable function whilst taking no prior assumptions concerning the data distribution.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The ANNs, and in particular, the feed forward backward propagation perceptrons, are widely applied in different fields during the past decade (Arditi et al, 1998;Thirumalaiah and Deo, 1998;Chau and Cheng, 2002;Cheng et al, 2005;Lin et al, 2006;Muttil and Chau, 2006;Wu and Chau, 2006;Xie et al, 1006;Chau, 2007). It appears that the multi-layer perceptrons can be trained to approximate and accurately generalize virtually any smooth, measurable function whilst taking no prior assumptions concerning the data distribution.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Currently, a model named XModel GUI tool is being developed for all above aims. As noted in [10][11][12][13][14][15], more work needs to be done in the future.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The first period represents the extreme dry year, the second period represents an average year and the third period represents the extreme wet year. The basic idea of using ANN hydrological prediction was taken from paper published by Cheng et al [9]. The paper was a guideline for drawing up a prediction model which was further extended and adjusted for the purposes mentioned in this paper.…”
Section: Case Studymentioning
confidence: 99%