With the aims of evaluating the predictive value of the Smithard method of bedside swallowing assessment, and of elucidating the brain computed tomography (CT scan) findings characteristic of dysphagia, we studied the outcome and brain CT findings over a 2.2‐year follow‐up period after swallowing assessment in 102 patients with chronic cerebral infarction was performed. The subjects were 61 elderly men, average age 75.1 years, and 41 women, average age 78.1 years. They were divided into a positive group (n = 33), who displayed some difficulty swallowing water, and a negative group (n = 69). Outcomes were compared between the two groups in terms of survival, cause of death, recurrent stroke and onset of pneumonia. Brain CT findings were compared for the type, number and laterality of infarcts, the grade of periventricular lucency (PVL), presence of ventricular dilatation (VD), and degree of cortical atrophy (CA). The time elapsed since stroke till assessment tended to be longer for the positive group (mean 7.1 years) than the negative group (4.4 years), and dementia, impaired consciousness and dependent ADL status were all more common. During the observation period, 18 subjects died, 15 in the positive group as opposed to three in the negative group, resulting in a significantly higher annual death rate (29.9%vs 2.2%, χ2 = 28.3, P < 0.0001). Aspiration pneumonia was thought to be the cause of death in all 15 cases in the positive group, whereas the single case of death from pneumonia in the negative group was thought to have been due to a relapse of Wallenberg's syndrome. The sensitivity and specificity of a positive swallowing assessment as a predictor of pneumonia were estimated as 0.55 and 0.94, respectively. CT findings of multiple infarction, bilateral cerebral hemispheric lesion, high grade PVL, VD and severe CA were more common in the positive group. Multiple regression analysis showed that bilateral infarction, PVL, CA and VD contributed significantly to dysphagia. From the above, aspiration pneumonia was frequently seen in the positive group, and this method showed high sensitivity and specificity in predicting this complication. The Smithard method of bedside swallowing assessment is therefore a useful screening method for identifying patients at high risk of developing pneumonia. The CT findings indicated that dysphagia is more likely with high grade PVL, VD and CA, as well as multiple infarcts. These results suggest that the etiology of dysphagia involves not only the pyramidal tracts, but a combination of factors including extrapyramidal tracts, impaired consciousness, reduced cognitive function and impairment of ADL.