Long term prospective of the Seine River system: Confronting climatic and direct anthropogenic changes

Ducharne, Agnès; Baubion, Charles; Beaudoin, Nicolas; Benoît, Marc; Billen, Gilles; Brisson, Nadine; Garnier, Josette; Kieken, H.; Lebonvallet, Sophie; Ledoux, Emmanuel; Mary, Bruno; Mignolet, Catherine; Poux, X.; Sauboua, Emmanuelle; Schott, Céline; Théry, Sylvain; Viennot, Pascal

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.12.011

Cited by 107 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…In contrast, Ducharne et al (2007) showed that for the Seine Basin under current practices the aquifer concentration would increase by 50% from the present. Under a moderate to high emissions scenario this could be as much as 100%.…”

Section: 1mentioning

confidence: 84%

“…For 2-9 years of warming in the range 0.3-6 °C, net N mineralisation rate increased by 46% and plant productivity by 19%. Ducharne et al (2007) . The impact of increased temperature (8 to 26%) was smaller than that reported by Rustad et al (2001) but outweighed the reduction of mineralisation due to reduced soil water content.…”

Section: Position Ofmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A relatively limited impact was predicted on overall recharge. Elevated CO 2 concentrations would lead to reduced stomatal conductance and therefore to reduced transpiration (Ducharne et al, 2007).…”

Section: Impact Of Climate and Land Use Change On Recharge And Resourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are a few published studies which attempt to relate temperate climate change to predicted changes in nitrate concentrations in groundwater or at other receptors directly (De Jong et al, 2008;Ducharne et al, 2007;Holman et al, 2005b;Jackson et al, 2007;Whitehead et al, 2009). Holman et al (2005b) indicate that the net impact is different for different areas, with nitrate leaching reduced in areas where agricultural production is lost due to increase droughts or floods, such as East Anglia, and increased in those where climate changes bring improved conditions and agricultural expansion, such as northwest England.…”

Section: 1mentioning

confidence: 99%

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A review of the impact of climate change on future nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK

Stuart

Gooddy

Bloomfield

et al. 2011

Science of The Total Environment

145

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This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change on nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK using a Source-Pathway-Receptor framework. Changes in temperature, precipitation quantity and distribution, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will affect the agricultural nitrate source term through changes in both soil processes and agricultural productivity. Non-agricultural source terms, such as urban areas and atmospheric deposition, are also expected to be affected. The implications for the rate of nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of these changes are not yet fully understood but predictions suggest that leaching rate may increase under future climate scenarios. Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle with changes to recharge, groundwater levels and resources and flow processes. These changes will impact on concentrations of nitrate in abstracted water and other receptors, such as surface water and groundwater-fed wetlands.The implications for nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of climate changes are not yet well enough understood to be able to make useful predictions without more site-specific data.The few studies which address the whole cycle show likely changes in nitrate leaching ranging from limited increases to a possible doubling of aquifer concentrations by 2100.These changes may be masked by nitrate reductions from improved agricultural practices, but a range of adaption measures need to be identified. Future impact may also be driven by economic responses to climate change. The study draws on extensive literature mainly from the UK and so presents a UK-based perspective, although literature for other temperate climates is included to augment that from Keywordsthe UK and to demonstrate that the proposed framework and general conclusions have a wider applicability.The principal N input to UK groundwater is derived from manures, fertilisers, sewage sludges and crop residues in agricultural areas (DEFRA, 2006). There are also smaller inputs from urban point sources and aerial deposition (Wakida and Lerner, 2005). N fertiliser can be applied as urea or ammonia, as well as nitrate, but the non-nitrate forms are generally converted rapidly to nitrate in the soils of the UK (MAFF, 1999). A small percentage of applied N is lost to the atmosphere as NH 3 , NO or N 2 O (Destouni and Darracq, 2009;Skiba et al., 1997;Sommer and Hutchings, 1995). A proportion of soil N is leached as nitrate from the base of the soil. This is either stored in, or transmitted through, the unsaturated zone to groundwater. groundwater. They found that although an ensemble average suggests there will be about a 5% reduction in annual potential groundwater recharge across the study area, this was not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level and more importantly observed that the spread of results for simulated changes in annual potential groundwater recharge range from a 26% decrease to a 31% increase by the 2080s, with ten GCMs predicting a decrease and three a...

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Section: 1mentioning

confidence: 84%

Section: Position Ofmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Impact Of Climate and Land Use Change On Recharge And Resourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: 1mentioning

confidence: 99%

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A review of the impact of climate change on future nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK

Stuart

Gooddy

Bloomfield

et al. 2011

Science of The Total Environment

145

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“…This justifies our spatially explicit modeling of the catchment. A similar modeling exercise has been carried out for the adjacent Seine River by Ducharne et al (2007), though without explicit stakeholder consultation or consideration of the coastal zone. In contrast, coastal models have generally lacked coverage of the terrestrial hinterland (Moll andRadach 2003, Lacroix et al 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nitrogen Source Apportionment for the Catchment, Estuary, and Adjacent Coastal Waters of the River Scheldt

Vermaat¹,

Broekx²,

Eck³

et al. 2012

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Using the systems approach framework (SAF), a coupled model suite was developed for simulating land-use decision making in response to nutrient abatement costs and water and nutrient fluxes in the hydrological network of the Scheldt River, and nutrient fluxes in the estuary and adjacent coastal sea. The purpose was to assess the efficiency of different longterm water quality improvement measures in current and future climate and societal settings, targeting nitrogen (N) load reduction. The spatial-dynamic model suite consists of two dynamically linked modules: PCRaster is used for the drainage network and is combined with ExtendSim modules for farming decision making and estuarine N dispersal. Model predictions of annual mean flow and total N concentrations compared well with data available for river and estuary (r² ≥ 0.83). Source apportionment was carried out to societal sectors and administrative regions; both households and agriculture are the major sources of N, with the regions of Flanders and Wallonia contributing most. Load reductions by different measures implemented in the model were comparable (~75% remaining after 30 yr), but costs differed greatly. Increasing domestic sewage connectivity was more effective, at comparatively low cost (47% remaining). The two climate scenarios did not lead to major differences in load compared with the business-as-usual scenario (~88% remaining). Thus, this spatially explicit model of water flow and N fluxes in the Scheldt catchment can be used to compare different long-term policy options for N load reduction to river, estuary, and receiving sea in terms of their effectiveness, cost, and optimal location of implementation.

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Impacts of Urbanization on Land Surface Temperature and Water Quality

Weng¹

2019

Techniques and Methods in Urban Remote Sensing

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Long term prospective of the Seine River system: Confronting climatic and direct anthropogenic changes

Cited by 107 publications

References 33 publications

A review of the impact of climate change on future nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK

A review of the impact of climate change on future nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK

Nitrogen Source Apportionment for the Catchment, Estuary, and Adjacent Coastal Waters of the River Scheldt

Impacts of Urbanization on Land Surface Temperature and Water Quality

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