Long‐term rainfall risk from tropical cyclones in coastal areas

Abstract

[1] We develop a methodology for the frequency of extreme rainfall intensities caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) in coastal areas. The model does not account for landfall effects. This makes the developed framework best suited for open water sites and coastal areas with flat topography. The mean rainfall field associated with a TC with maximum tangential wind speed V max , radius of maximum winds R max , and translation speed V t is obtained using a physically based model, whereas rainfall variability at both large scales (from storm to storm) and small scales (due to rainbands and local convection) is modeled statistically. The statistical component is estimated using precipitation radar data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. Taylor's hypothesis is used to convert spatial rainfall intensity fluctuations to temporal fluctuations at a given location A. The combined physical-statistical model gives the distribution of the maximum rainfall intensity at A during an averaging period D for a TC with characteristics (V max , R max , V t ) that passes at a given distance from A. To illustrate the use of the model for long-term rainfall risk analysis, we formulate a recurrence model for tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico that make landfall between longitudes 85°and 95°W. We then use the rainfall and recurrence models to assess the rainfall risk for New Orleans. For return periods of 100 years or more and long averaging durations (D around 12-24 h), tropical cyclones dominate over other rainfall event types, whereas the reverse is true for shorter return periods or shorter averaging durations.

Storm Catalog‐Based Analysis of Rainfall Heterogeneity and Frequency in a Complex Terrain

“…The relatively low number of tropical cyclones in these storm catalogs reflects the fact that the 2000–2015 study period coincided with relatively few landfalling TC occurrences in the North Atlantic (Hall & Hereid, ; Hart et al, ). It is also likely that the TCs dominate over other storm types for long‐duration (around 12–24 hr) storms, whereas for short‐duration storms, the role of TCs is less important (Langousis & Veneziano, ). In section , the impact of storm types on SST estimates will be detailed.…”

Event-Based Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in Houston, Texas and Miami, Florida

“…Some provide unprecedented depths of storm surge (Hurricane Katrina, 2005), while others are most impressive due to their violent winds (Hurricane Maria, 2017) [1][2][3] . Despite the risk, inland rainfall from TCs is understudied [4,5]. High amounts of inland rainfall can lead to widespread catastrophe, as was evidenced during Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Texas in 2017.…”

Characterization of rainfall distribution and flooding associated with U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones: Analyses of Hurricanes Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne (2004)

“…They stratified the data according to different tropical cyclone intensities and whether the storms were over oceans, over land, or mixed. Langousis and Veneziano [2009a, 2009b] proposed a physical‐statistical model of tropical cyclone rainfall for open water sites but not accounting for landfall effects. Lonfat et al [2004] analyzed instantaneous precipitation observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) over six ocean basins for the period 1998–2000.…”