Long-Term Studies in Ecology

Likens, Gene E.

doi:10.1007/978-1-4615-7358-6

Cited by 236 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 128 publications

(187 reference statements)

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“…This is an important result because most studies do not examine species across such a large geographic range nor with spatially explicit estimates of climate or trait changes (but see Davenport & Hossack, 2016). Given that precipitation changes are expected to be difficult to predict (IPCC, 2013), our results suggest that size changes of wood frogs may not be easy to anticipate and that caution should be used when ecologists and evolutionary biologists use "space-for-time" studies (Pickett, 1989) where measures of a species' traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climatic conditions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming

Sheridan

Caruso

Apodaca³

et al. 2017

Ecology and Evolution

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Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km2, and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901–1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961–2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in “space‐for‐time” studies where measures of a species’ traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming

Sheridan

Caruso

Apodaca³

et al. 2017

Ecology and Evolution

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“…Although applied ecologists are always influenced by data from previous studies, they usually only incorporate this information implicitly in their sampling designs or discussions (McCarthy & Masters, 2005). The advantage of explicitly incorporating prior information is that this may reduce the amount of data needed before useful predictions can be made (McCarthy & Masters, 2005;Morris et al, 2015), potentially reducing the need for expensive long-term monitoring (Likens, 1983;Taylor, 1989).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining data‐derived priors with postrelease monitoring data to predict persistence of reintroduced populations

Drummond

Lovegrove

Armstrong

2018

Ecology and Evolution

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Monitoring is an essential part of reintroduction programs, but many years of data may be needed to obtain reliable population projections. This duration can potentially be reduced by incorporating prior information on expected vital rates (survival and fecundity) when making inferences from monitoring data. The prior distributions for these parameters can be derived from data for previous reintroductions, but it is important to account for site‐to‐site variation. We evaluated whether such informative priors improved our ability to estimate the finite rate of increase (λ) of the North Island robin (Petroica longipes) population reintroduced to Tawharanui Regional Park, New Zealand. We assessed how precision improved with each year of postrelease data added, comparing models that used informative or uninformative priors. The population grew from about 22 to 80 individuals from 2007 to 2016, with λ estimated to be 1.23 if density dependence was included in the model and 1.13 otherwise. Under either model, 7 years of data were required before the lower 95% credible limit for λ was > 1, giving confidence that the population would persist. The informative priors did not reduce this requirement. Data‐derived priors are useful before reintroduction because they allow λ to be estimated in advance. However, in the case examined here, the value of the priors was overwhelmed once site‐specific monitoring data became available. The Bayesian method presented is logical for reintroduced populations. It allows prior information (used to inform prerelease decisions) to be integrated with postrelease monitoring. This makes full use of the data for ongoing management decisions. However, if the priors properly account for site‐to‐site variation, they may have little predictive value compared with the site‐specific data. This value will depend on the degree of site‐to‐site variation as well as the quality of the data.

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“…As we point out in this overview article, and as the reader can see in a number of contributions to this special issue, there are certain limitations in using this approach (e.g., not all taxonomic groups render themselves to such studies; possible "hatching/germination bias"). However, given the complexities of studying evolutionary processes in natural populations, especially in light of traditional "space-for-time" limitations (Pickett, 1989), we see RE as providing clear benefits. The main benefit is that one can actually revive not only "whole genomes" but also "whole phenomes," and begin to more fully examine complex trait evolution over timescales that exceed the typical lifespan of a research project and/or investigator.…”

Section: Summary/conclusionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The most common approach to studying natural populations is to substitute "space-for-time" to infer long-term dynamics (Pickett, 1989). In other words, an investigator compares the population genetic parameters between two spatially separated populations differing in trait values to infer evolutionary mechanisms underlying trait divergence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolutionary aspects of resurrection ecology: Progress, scope, and applications—An overview

Weider

Jeyasingh

Frisch

2017

Evolutionary Applications

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Long-Term Studies in Ecology

Cited by 236 publications

References 128 publications

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming

Combining data‐derived priors with postrelease monitoring data to predict persistence of reintroduced populations

Evolutionary aspects of resurrection ecology: Progress, scope, and applications—An overview

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