Long-term trends in tourism climate index scores for 40 stations across Iran: the role of climate change and influence on tourism sustainability

Abstract

Tourism is a rapidly growing international sector and relies intrinsically on an amenable climate to attract visitors. Climate change is likely to influence the locations preferred by tourists and the time of year of peak travel. This study investigates the effect of climate change on the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for Iran. The paper first calculates the monthly TCI for 40 cities across Iran for each year from 1961 to 2010. Changes in the TCI over the study period for each of the cities are then explored. Increases in TCI are observed for at least one station in each month, whilst for some months no decreases occurred. For October, the maximum of 45% of stations demonstrated significant changes in TCI, whilst for December only 10% of stations demonstrated change. The stations Kashan, Orumiyeh, Shahrekord, Tabriz, Torbat-e-Heidarieh and Zahedan experienced significant increases in TCI for over 6 months. The beginning of the change in TCI is calculated to have occurred from 1970 to 1980 for all stations. Given the economic dependence on oil exports, the development of sustainable tourism in Iran is of importance. This critically requires the identification of locations most suitable for tourism, now and in the future, to guide strategic investment.

A comprehensive analysis of physiologically equivalent temperature changes of Iranian selected stations for the last half century

“…The results of this present research are to an extent in conformity with the results from previous studies conducted in recent years. As Roshan et al (2015) showed that the cities located on the coast of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea have the most favorable climate conditions for tourism in winter due to warm temperatures, clear skies, and rare occurrence of precipitation. The findings of Daneshvar et al (2013) showed that spring months, especially April, had the most appropriate condition for thermal comfort in most regions of Iran; however, in southern cities, the ideal comfort conditions were related to winter.…”

“…The most important inhibiting factor of bioclimatic conditions of these areas is related to the warm conditions during late spring to late summer. Roshan et al (2015) showed that the cities on the coast of the Caspian Sea had the least favorable conditions based on the tourism climatic index (TCI) due to high rainfall volumes, low sunshine hours, and temperatures outside of comfort levels. Their results presented that spring and fall are the most suitable season there for tourism, similarly to this study.…”

“…The growing need for valid assessment procedures for outdoor thermal environment in the fields of public weather services, public health systems, urban planning, tourism, recreation, and climate impact research led to the development of thermal indices (Jendritzky et al 2012, Roshan et al 2015. In fact, one of the main objectives of human bioclimatology is to prepare indicators that combine the physiological effect of complex environmental and personal factors influencing human body (Auliciems and de Dear 1998).…”

“…These factors induce highly-diverse bioclimatic conditions in terms of temporal and spatial scale in different parts of Iran. The reality of these various conditions are reflected in numerous studies conducted in Iran (Ramezani Gourab and Foroughe, 2010, Delavar et al 2012, Ramazanipoor and Behzadmoghaddam 2013, Safaeipoor et al 2013, Esmaili and Fallah Ghalhari 2014b, Roshan et al 2015, Mokhtari and Anvari 2015. Despite the fact that several studies have focused on the different bioclimate features of Iran so far, their reliance on monthly data and shortterm time series is among their weaknesses.…”

A turisztikai klímapotenciál értékelése eredeti, valamint továbbfejlesztett és a magyar lakossághoz adaptált eszközökkel

“…Scott et al 2004, Amelung and Viner 2006, Németh 2013, Kovács et al 2016, Roshan et al 2016a. A kompakt kifejezésmód azonban nem alkalmas arra, hogy külön-külön, részletesen tanulmányozhassuk az egyes klimatológiai körülményekben (pl.…”