Long-Term Trends of Asthma Mortality in China from 2000 to 2019: A Joinpoint Regression and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Huang, Guimin; Liu, Junting; Li, Tao; Hou, Dongqing; Liu, Wenqian; Xie, Yixuan; Zhang, Tong; Cheng, Yijing

doi:10.3390/healthcare10020346

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Children are more susceptible, which affects the incidence rate. The effects of age, period, and cohort on asthma mortality in Sichuan were not the same as those reported in Huang’s analysis of the long-term trends in asthma mortality in China from 2000 to 2019 [ 14 ]. Studies in Sichuan and China as a whole have shown that the age effect on asthma mortality increases with age, and the risk of mortality in later birth cohorts has generally decreased; however, the national period effect showed a V-shaped trend, which gradually decreased by period in Sichuan.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 72%

“…This may have contributed to asthma prevalence and the resulting substantial burden of disease [ 11 – 13 ]. Huang and his colleagues assessed trends in asthma mortality in China from 2000 to 2019, and showed that age, period, and population birth cohorts may contribute to changes in asthma mortality [ 14 ]. At present, the trends in asthma incidence and mortality in the western provinces of China are unclear.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends and age-period-cohort effects on incidence and mortality of asthma in Sichuan Province, China, 1990–2019

2022

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Background The provinces in western China have undergone rapid urbanization and industrialization, particularly since the Chinese government launched the Great Western Development Strategy in 2000. We examined the time trends and contributions of age, period, and cohort effects to asthma incidence and mortality in Sichuan Province, a populous province in western China, from 1990 to 2019. Methods The data of Sichuan Province from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. Trends and average annual percentage change were estimated using joinpoint regression. Age, period, and cohort effects were estimated using an age-period-cohort model with the intrinsic estimator method. Results In the latest period (2015–2019), the highest incidence of asthma was 2004.49/100,000 in children aged < 5 years, and the highest mortality rate was 22.04/100,000 for elderly people aged > 80 years. Age-standardized rates generally remained stable (95% confidence interval [CI] − 0.21, 0.11) for incidence and declined by 4.74% (95% CI − 5.09, − 4.39) for mortality over the last 30 years. After controlling for other effects, the age effect on asthma showed that the incidence rate ratio (RR) was highest in the < 5 years age group, and the mortality RR was highest in the > 80 years age group. The period effect on incidence and mortality decreased from 1990 to 2019, respectively. A cohort effect was found the incidence RR increased slowly from the early birth cohorts to the later birth cohorts, especially after the 2005 birth cohort, whereas the mortality RR continued to decline. Conclusions There was a significant effect of older age on the asthma mortality rate over the last 30 years, and the incidence rate in children aged < 5 years increased. The relative risk of asthma incidence in the later birth cohorts increased. Effective preventive measures and public health policies should be to protect children and elderly people from potentially harmful chronic diseases.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 72%