Long-term verification of HIRLAM and ECMWF forecasts over Southern Europe

Navascués, Beatriz; Calvo, Javier Bartolome; Morales, Guillermo A.; Santos, Carla; Callado, Alfons; Cansado, Alberto; Cuxart, Joan; Diez, Margarita; Río, P. del; Escribà, Pau; García-Colombo, O.; García-Moya, José Antonio; Geijo, Carlos; Gutiérrez, Estatio; Hortal, Mariano; Martínez, Isabel; Orfila, B.; Parodi, José Antonio; Rodríguez, Ernesto; Sánchez-Arriola, J.; Santos-Atienza, Inés; Simarro, Juan

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.01.010

Cited by 30 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Looking at the shadowed rectangle that indicates the IQR for S and A, both are biased in all the experiments: S to the right (overestimation) and A downwards (underestimation), respectively indicating forecasts with larger and/or flatter structures than observed, and a negative bias in the amount of precipitation in the object space (most operational models show on average a positive bias in the amount of precipitation, see e.g. Navascués et al, 2013, but this study deals with a selection of extreme precipitation cases, thus no consistency with the average behaviour is expected on this aspect). Slight differences can be observed both in the median positions and in the rectangle sizes: while EXP-RS S median (dashed vertical line) compares to that one for EXP, EXP-ATOVS*2 one is a bit larger (0.3 with respect to 0.2), indicating a slightly worse representation of structure.…”

Section: Sal Verification Of Qpf Using High-resolution Rain Gauge Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Numerical weather prediction (NWP) has steadily improved forecast skill over the last decades (Navascués et al, 2013). These advances arise from progress on numerical models and data assimilation (DA) methods as well as the increased quality and availability of data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This NWP system is operational at the Spanish Meteorological Service, AEMET, (Navascués et al, 2013) and many other National Meteorological Services (NMSs) in Western Europe. The experiments have been carried out for two-week periods of PREVIEW-DTS and MEDEX-DTS field campaigns, which included a large set of case studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Influence of targeted observations on short-term forecasts of high-impact weather events in the Mediterranean

Campins

Navascués

Santos

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The influence of targeted observations on shortrange forecasts is tested over two different periods of PRE-VIEW (2008) and MEDEX (2009) data targeting field campaigns for a set of Mediterranean high-impact weather events. As targeted observations we have used not only extra radiosondes, but also enhanced satellite data observed in singular vector (SV)-based sensitive regions. Three parallel observing system experiments, based on the High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) data assimilation and forecast system, have been conducted. Forecasts of the three experiments have been assessed using both verifying analyses for upper-air fields, and surface observations for several meteorological parameters. Furthermore, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) have been objectively verified using the novel feature oriented Structure-Amplitude-Location (SAL) method.The results obtained show that extra radiosondes have an overall positive impact on the forecasts (average improvement of all upper-air variables and vertical levels studied is 3.6 %). When in addition to extra radiosonde data also enhanced satellite data are assimilated, the overall forecast skill is almost doubled. However, a distinct behaviour is found between the PREVIEW and MEDEX cases. While for MEDEX cases the improvement is slight, for PREVIEW cases the improvement is significant (average improvements of 1.7 % and 8.9 %, respectively, for the experiment with enhanced satellite data). It is suggested that this is due to the location of the target areas and the spatial distribution of the composite observing system and to the different atmospheric predictability in these two periods.

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Section: Sal Verification Of Qpf Using High-resolution Rain Gauge Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Influence of targeted observations on short-term forecasts of high-impact weather events in the Mediterranean

Campins

Navascués

Santos

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Meteorological forcings for the high-resolution domain come from an operational HIRLAM run every 6 h at AEMET (Navascues et al, 2013). Emissions over land in this domain come from the GEMS-TNO inventory (Visschedijk et al, 2007).…”

Section: Example Of the Specific Evaluation For The Mediterranean Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The aerosol module of MOCAGE follows a bin approach and includes so far the primary aerosols: dust (Martet et al, 2009), sea salts, black carbon (Nho-Kim et al, 2005) and organic carbon. Recent updates of the primary aerosol module and corresponding evaluation can be found in Sič et al (2015).…”

Section: Mocage Forecast and Analysis Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

A regional air quality forecasting system over Europe: the MACC-II daily ensemble production

et al. 2015

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Abstract. This paper describes the pre-operational analysis and forecasting system developed during MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) and continued in the MACC-II (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate: Interim Implementation) European projects to provide air quality services for the European continent. This system is based on seven state-of-the art models developed and run in Europe (CHIMERE, EMEP, EURAD-IM, LOTOS-EUROS, MATCH, MOCAGE and SILAM). These models are used to calculate multi-model ensemble products. The paper gives an overall picture of its status at the end of MACC-II (summer 2014) and analyses the performance of the multimodel ensemble. The MACC-II system provides daily 96 h forecasts with hourly outputs of 10 chemical species/aerosols (O 3 , NO 2 , SO 2 , CO, PM 10 , PM 2.5 , NO, NH 3 , total NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) and PAN+PAN Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. V. Marécal et al.:A regional air quality forecasting system over Europe precursors) over eight vertical levels from the surface to 5 km height. The hourly analysis at the surface is done a posteriori for the past day using a selection of representative air quality data from European monitoring stations.The performance of the system is assessed daily, weekly and every 3 months (seasonally) through statistical indicators calculated using the available representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. Results for a case study show the ability of the ensemble median to forecast regional ozone pollution events. The seasonal performances of the individual models and of the multi-model ensemble have been monitored since September 2009 for ozone, NO 2 and PM 10 . The statistical indicators for ozone in summer 2014 show that the ensemble median gives on average the best performances compared to the seven models. There is very little degradation of the scores with the forecast day but there is a marked diurnal cycle, similarly to the individual models, that can be related partly to the prescribed diurnal variations of anthropogenic emissions in the models. During summer 2014, the diurnal ozone maximum is underestimated by the ensemble median by about 4 µg m −3 on average. Locally, during the studied ozone episodes, the maxima from the ensemble median are often lower than observations by 30-50 µg m −3 . Overall, ozone scores are generally good with average values for the normalised indicators of 0.14 for the modified normalised mean bias and of 0.30 for the fractional gross error. Tests have also shown that the ensemble median is robust to reduction of ensemble size by one, that is, if predictions are unavailable from one model. Scores are also discussed for PM 10 for winter 2013-1014. There is an underestimation of most models leading the ensemble median to a mean bias of −4.5 µg m −3 . The ensemble median fractional gross error is larger for PM 10 (∼ 0.52) than for ozone and the correlation is lower (∼ 0.35 for PM 10 and ∼ 0.54 for ...

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Moisture Balance Over the Iberian Peninsula According to a Regional Climate Model: The Impact of 3DVAR Data Assimilation

et al. 2018

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An analysis of the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle by means of a 15 km resolution numerical integration performed using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) nested in ERA Interim is presented. Two WRF experiments covering the period 2010–2014 were prepared. The first one (N) was configured as in standard numerical downscaling experiments. The second one (D), with the same parameterizations, included a step of 3DVAR data assimilation every 6 h. Apart from comparing our results with ERA Interim data, several observational data sets were used to validate the precipitable water (radiosondes and MODIS data), precipitation (EOBS, ECA&D, TRMM, and GPCP), or evaporation (GLEAM). The verification results showed that the D experiment systematically performs better than N and in many instances, too, better than the forcing reanalysis. According to the results, the leading terms of the water balance are the tendency of the precipitable water, the divergence of moisture flux, evaporation, and precipitation. No spatial patterns were recognizable for the annual accumulated evaporation, but the effect of the Atlantic fronts was detected in the precipitation patterns. The transboundary moisture fluxes through the contour of the Iberian Peninsula behave differently depending on the season during 2010–2014. During winter, they show a net moisture import through the boundaries. During spring, summer, or autumn moisture is exported specially through the Mediterranean coast, and only during midday, this feature is reversed due to sea breezes.

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Long-term verification of HIRLAM and ECMWF forecasts over Southern Europe

Cited by 30 publications

References 31 publications

Influence of targeted observations on short-term forecasts of high-impact weather events in the Mediterranean

Influence of targeted observations on short-term forecasts of high-impact weather events in the Mediterranean

A regional air quality forecasting system over Europe: the MACC-II daily ensemble production

Moisture Balance Over the Iberian Peninsula According to a Regional Climate Model: The Impact of 3DVAR Data Assimilation

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