Long-term water demand for electricity, industry and households

Bijl, David L.; Bogaart, P.W.; Kram, Tom; Vries, Bert J.M. de; Vuuren, Detlef van

doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2015.09.005

Cited by 82 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The framework is designed to be used with IAMs, which are influential decision tools but are unable to capture nonlinear, emergent change typical of socio-environmental systems (Rockström et al, 2017;van Vuuren et al, 2016;Verburg et al, 2016). Our approach does not require IAMs to be re-engineered, but rather simulates complex socioenvironmental processes within the constraints exogenously applied by IAMs.…”

Section: Applications Of the Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, it allows the exploration of how scenarios, such as the recently published Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP), which outlines future environmental change according to different socio-economic development storylines (O'Neill et al, 2015), can be implemented on finer scales and taking account of sectoral and regional interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks. This can be a potentially important step in extending the usefulness of IAMs whilst avoiding adding unwanted complexity to those models (van Vuuren et al, 2016).…”

Section: Applications Of the Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Currently 30 % of energy produced is used within the food sector, with fluctuations in energy costs having direct impacts on agriculture and thus water resources (Frieler et al, 2015). In addition, the energy sector itself requires considerable water resources (Bijl et al, 2016). Fossil fuel extraction such as coal mining and shale gas fracking are highly water intensive, whilst biofuel production competes with food production for land and water resources (Bonsch et al, 2016;Hejazi et al, 2015).…”

Section: Sectoral Interdependencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Incorporating these processes in IAMs would risk including too much complexity, possibly leading to a trade-off with transparency (van Vuuren et al, 2016). An alternative approach is to couple IAMs with models that capture these important processes, without changing the internal structure of IAMs.…”

Section: Sectoral Interdependencementioning

confidence: 99%

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A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

et al. 2018

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Abstract. We present a new framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation. The framework sets out a method to capture regional and sectoral interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system that contribute to emergent water use patterns. The framework integrates aspects of existing models and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated assessment modelling. The core of the framework is a multi-agent network of city agents connected by infrastructural trade networks. Agents receive socio-economic and environmental constraint information from integrated assessment models and hydrological models respectively and simulate complex, socio-environmental dynamics that operate within those constraints. The emergent changes in food and water resources are aggregated and fed back to the original models with minimal modification of the structure of those models. It is our conviction that the framework presented can form the basis for a new wave of decision tools that capture complex socio-environmental change within our globalised world. In doing so they will contribute to illuminating pathways towards a sustainable future for humans, ecosystems and the water they share.

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Section: Applications Of the Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Applications Of the Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Sectoral Interdependencementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Sectoral Interdependencementioning

confidence: 99%

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A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

et al. 2018

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“…Researchers have already started using these scenarios for global water-use assessment with various global hydrological models (Bijl et al 2016, Hanasaki et al 2013, Mouratiadou et al 2016. A recent work was carried out by the Water Futures and Solutions initiative (WFaS; http://www.iiasa.ac.at/WFaS), which is a collaborative, stakeholder-informed effort applying systematic global scenario analysis to identify future hotspots of water insecurity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water use in a heavily urbanized delta : scenarios and adaptation options for sectorial water use in the Pearl River Basin, China

Yao¹

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Multi‐model and multi‐scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

et al. 2017

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This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.Plain Language Summary Home to almost 4.5 billion people, Asia has experienced unprecedented economic and population growth in recent decades. In order to sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, water use has been increasing rapidly in many parts of Asia. At present, water withdrawals in Asia represent 65% of the global total. This huge abstraction of water resources has resulted in many Asian regions undergoing pervasive water scarcity conditions. The imminent global changes from climate change and socioeconomic development in Asia are expected to place additional pressures on water resources in the coming decades. In such a context, it is imperative to evaluate future water scarcity conditions and identify regions at highest risk in Asia. We found that by 2050, 20% of the land area in Asia, with population exceeding 1.6-2.0 billion, is projected to experience severe water scarcity. Here, we for the first time highlight that socioeconomic changes are the main driver of worsening water scarcity in Asia, much larger than the climate change impacts.

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Long-term water demand for electricity, industry and households

Cited by 82 publications

References 13 publications

A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

Water use in a heavily urbanized delta : scenarios and adaptation options for sectorial water use in the Pearl River Basin, China

Multi‐model and multi‐scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

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