Longitudinal evaluation of the impact of standardised packaging and minimum excise tax on tobacco sales and industry revenue in the UK

Abstract

BackgroundStandardised packaging for factory-made cigarettes (FM) and roll-your-own tobacco (RYO), and a minimum excise tax (MET) were fully implemented in the UK in May 2017 following a 12-month transition period. This paper is the first to examine effects on tobacco sales volumes and company revenues.MethodsAnalysis of UK commercial supermarket and convenience store electronic point of sale data on tobacco sales. FM and RYO products' data (May 2015–April 2018) yielded 107 572 monthly observations. Expected values from additive mixed modelling were used to calculate trends in: (1) volumes of tobacco sold overall, by cigarette type (FM and RYO) and by seven market segments; and (2) company net revenues. A 10-month period (June 2015–March 2016) before the transition to standardised packs was compared with a 10-month period after the introduction of the MET and full implementation of standardised packs (June 2017–March 2018).ResultsPostimplementation, the average monthly decline in stick sales was 6.4 million (95% CI 0.1 million to 12.7 million) sticks faster than prelegislation, almost doubling the speed of decline. Sales of cheap FM brands, previously increasing, plateaued after implementation. Company monthly net revenues declined from a stable £231 million (95% CI £228 million to £234 million), prelegislation, to £198 million (95% CI £191 million to £206 million) in April 2018.ConclusionsThe concurrent introduction of standardised packaging and MET in the UK was associated with significant decline in sales and in tobacco industry revenues, and the end of the previous growth in cheap cigarette brands that appeal to young and price conscious smokers.

Consumer Response to Standardized Tobacco Packaging in the United Kingdom: A Synthesis of Evidence from Two Systematic Reviews

“…The data from two systematic reviews, 15 , 16 reported to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) standards, 19 are the source data analyzed in this review. The source reviews had a wider remit to also examine how the tobacco industry reacted, such as changes to products, and how the retail environment changed in response to the policy (eg, Evans-Reeves et al, 20 Hiscock et al 21 ). This paper focuses on how consumers (smokers and non-smokers) in the UK responded to standardized packaging, in terms of the impact of on warning salience, appeal and harm perceptions, and behavior.…”

Penerapan MOORA pada Evaluasi Kinerja dalam Mengefektifkan Biaya Operasional

“…Untuk tetap mempertahankan tingkat efektifiktas biaya operasional salah satu hal yang dapat dilakukan adalah memberikan motivasi kepada sales berupa reward dengan cara melakukan evaluasi kinerja sales, salah satu evaluasi kinerja sales dapat dilakukan dengan melihat nilai terhadap kegiatan dan aktivitas yang berhubungan dengan kinerja kerja sales, sehingga hal tersebut dapat menjadi cara kontrol perusahaan terhadap menjaga stabilitas dan semangat kinerja sales. Kerap sekali dalam melakukan evaluasi kinerja sales terjadi kesalahan dalam melakukan input nilai, keterlambatan dalam menemukan hasil hingga kesulitan dalam melihat tingkat akurasi atau persentase dalam menentukan nilai terhadap evaluasi kinerja sales dikarenakan terdapat banyak data yang akan diproses sehingga diperlukan sebuah sistem pengambilan keputusan dalam mempermudah menyelesaikan permasalahan evaluasi kinerja sales dalam mengefektifkan biaya operasional [3]. Sistem Pendukung Keputusan (SPK) merupakan suatu sistem yang mampu memberikan dukungan terhadap keputusan yang dihasilkan pimpinan/manajemen berbasis komputer [4], [5].…”

Beyond choice architecture: advancing the science of changing behaviour at scale

“…Unlike interventions targeting individuals, population-level interventions may afford relatively small effects but still result in considerable population impact given the number of individuals they can reach. For example, standardised packaging of tobacco likely has very small effects at an individual level [20,21] but at a population level these are important in contributing to reduced smoking rates [22,23] with all the attendant health benefits. Two complementary approaches to both understanding and changing behaviour are discernible: those that focus on conscious volitional processes activated by desired goals or outcomes, and those that focus on non-conscious processes activated by environmental stimuli or cues.…”