Longitudinal performance trajectories of young female sprint runners: a new tool to predict performance progression

Abstract

BackgroundLongitudinal performance tracking in sports science is crucial for accurate talent identification and prognostic prediction of future performance. However, traditional methods often struggle with the complexities of unbalanced datasets and inconsistent repeated measures.PurposeThis study aimed to analyze the longitudinal performance development of female 60 m sprint runners using linear mixed effects models (LMM). We sought to generate a practical tool for coaches and researchers to establish benchmarks and predict performance development.MethodsWe analyzed 41,123 race results from 8,732 female 60 m track sprinters aged 6–15 years, collected from the Swiss Athletics online database between 2006 and 2021. Only season-best times per athlete and only athletes with at least 3 season-best times in their career were included. LMM was used to generate performance trajectories, benchmarks, and individual predictions. A practical software tool was developed and made available to allow individual performance prediction based on race times from previous seasons. In addition, classic empirical percentile curves were constructed using the Lambda-Mu-Sigma (LMS) method.ResultsLMM handled the dataset's complexities, producing robust longitudinal performance trajectories. Compared to empirical percentiles generated using the LMS method, which provided a retrospective view of performance development, the mixed model approach identified individualized longitudinal performance developments and estimated predictions of future performance. The best-fitting model included log-transformed chronological age (CA) as a fixed effect and random intercepts and slopes for each athlete. This model explained 59% of the variance through fixed effects (marginal R2) and 93% through combined fixed and random effects (conditional R2).ConclusionLMM provided longitudinal sport performance data, enabling the establishment of performance benchmarking and prediction of future performance. The software tool can assist coaches in setting realistic training goals and identifying promising athletes.