Look to the future, evaluators: Why we should incorporate futures and foresight into building and evaluating theories of change

Abstract

This article makes the case that the traditional construction of theories of change fails to adequately interrogate blind spots about the volatility of our current moment, or consider alternative futures. To substantiate this assertion, the authors draw from their roles as participant‐observers in developing a futures and foresight practice at Democracy Fund, a foundation focused on supporting an “inclusive, multi‐racial democracy that is open, just, resilient, and trustworthy.” The authors provide an overview of whether and how Democracy Fund's practice, which is structured around understanding how a system might respond to sources of disruption, has helped the organization prepare for significant change within a system—and develop theories of change that remain relevant. Authors discuss how the future studies and foresight methods they have used, which include scenario planning and trend‐sensing, deserve more widespread use in the evaluation community, particularly when it comes to developing and evaluating theories of change.