Losers' Second Chances and Control of the Party Machine: Aspirant Premiers in Regional Spain

Abstract

In parliamentary democracies controlling party machines has traditionally been a key asset for nascent political leaders to continue in their position if they have suffered a bad electoral start. Recent proposals suggest, however, that this is no longer the case in 'old democracies', but the extent of its continuing importance in 'young' ones is still unclear. Based on a dataset built by the author of the candidates from the main national parties for the premiership of the Spanish Comunidades Autónomas, we have analyzed if being party chair increases their chances of 'reselection' after losing their first elections. We conclude that in Spain, our example of a 'young' democracy, party machines still play a fundamental role for starting as a political leader.

The gender politics of executive candidate selection and reselection

“…Likewise, reselection is more likely when having lost the contest but still improved the party's electoral performance (Taylor & Boatright 2005). Loser candidates also tend to get another shot when being the party leader (Astudillo 2015). This notwithstanding, research on gender and political parties has shown that female party leaders have a greater likelihood of stepping down when their parties lose vote share (O'Brien 2015;O'Neill & Stewart 2009).…”

“…As a result, works on top executive leaders have tended to focus on women, but the reason why the ways in which political careers may be gendered cannot be fully grasped. For its part, mainstream research on executives has concentrated on elected presidents and prime ministers rather than on actual candidates (Botella et al 2010;Carreras 2017;Siavelis & Morgenstern 2008;Samuels & Shugart 2010; but see Astudillo 2015) or it has focused on party leaders under the assumption that the latter tend to be the executive candidates (Sandri et al 2015). For its part, mainstream research on executives has concentrated on elected presidents and prime ministers rather than on actual candidates (Botella et al 2010;Carreras 2017;Siavelis & Morgenstern 2008;Samuels & Shugart 2010; but see Astudillo 2015) or it has focused on party leaders under the assumption that the latter tend to be the executive candidates (Sandri et al 2015).…”

“…Although reselection is a type of selection, given that executive candidates' chances of competing again may depend on their electoral performance as well as on their anchoring in the party hierarchy (Astudillo 2015), in this article we study reselection in its own right. On the one hand, we look into male and female executive candidates' traits and we trace their cursus honorum.…”

“…For its part, mainstream research on executives has concentrated on elected presidents and prime ministers rather than on actual candidates (Botella et al 2010;Carreras 2017;Siavelis & Morgenstern 2008;Samuels & Shugart 2010; but see Astudillo 2015) or it has focused on party leaders under the assumption that the latter tend to be the executive candidates (Sandri et al 2015). Furthermore, these studies have so far assumed that individual characteristics as well as organisational and institutional factors weigh in similarly for male and female politicians.…”

“…Looking at first-time candidates allows us to study the extent to which the springboards to top political positions resemble or differ for men and women. Although reselection is a type of selection, given that executive candidates' chances of competing again may depend on their electoral performance as well as on their anchoring in the party hierarchy (Astudillo 2015), in this article we study reselection in its own right.…”