Losses loom more likely than gains: Propensity to imagine losses increases their subjective probability

Bilgin, Baler

doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2012.03.008

Cited by 67 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…While Bilgin's (2012) scenarios and ours clearly diff ered in numerous respects, it may be suggested-consistent with Bilgin's own commentsthat the diff erence in fi ndings may have to do with the controllability of the events whose perceived likelihood was assessed. In Bilgin's studies, the move to a new offi ce was presented as outside the participants' control, while in the present studies the health outcome was presented as controllable through diet.…”

supporting

confidence: 75%

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Perceived Likelihood of Experiencing a Desirable versus Undesirable Outcome

Gold

2013

Psychol Rep

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In each of 6 studies, some participants were informed that the consumption of certain foods prevents diet-related heart disease; then, they estimated their likelihood of avoiding the disease. Others were informed that failing to consume the same foods contributes to diet-related heart disease; then, they estimated their likelihood of developing the disease. The undesirable outcome was always perceived as less likely than the desirable one. The findings are contrasted with those reported by Bilgin. The difference between the two sets of findings may point to the role event controllability plays in the generation of optimism via motivated reasoning.

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supporting

confidence: 75%

“…Both of Bilgin's (2012) studies concerned the 'moving offi ce' scenario. All our studies concerned the same threat to heart health.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Perceived Likelihood of Experiencing a Desirable versus Undesirable Outcome

Gold

2013

Psychol Rep

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“…There was no evidence that participants estimated the likelihood of a negative event affecting them as less likely than one that only affected others. In Study 3, this result held despite participants generally estimating negative outcomes as more likely than neutral outcomes—the opposite of an optimism bias (replicating the severity effect observed in [20,22–24]. Finally, Studies 4 and 5 utilised the same 2x2 design as Study 3, but moved from fictional scenarios to real outcomes (in which participants—or others—could lose £5 they had been endowed with).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 72%

“…In fact, probability estimates of negative events were higher than those for neutral events (see also, [22–24]).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unrealistic comparative optimism: An unsuccessful search for evidence of a genuinely motivational bias

et al. 2017

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One of the most accepted findings across psychology is that people are unrealistically optimistic in their judgments of comparative risk concerning future life events—they judge negative events as less likely to happen to themselves than to the average person. Harris and Hahn (2011), however, demonstrated how unbiased (non-optimistic) responses can result in data patterns commonly interpreted as indicative of optimism due to statistical artifacts. In the current paper, we report the results of 5 studies that control for these statistical confounds and observe no evidence for residual unrealistic optimism, even observing a ‘severity effect’ whereby severe outcomes were overestimated relative to neutral ones (Studies 3 & 4). We conclude that there is no evidence supporting an optimism interpretation of previous results using the prevalent comparison method.

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“…Residents who expected loss in future decisions are more likely to end up in the 'loss domain' (Bilgin, 2012). Consequently, residents who anticipated moving to an undesirable location are more likely to be 'forced out' from the gentrified areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Behavioural insights into housing relocation decisions: The effects of the Beijing Olympics

Wang

Bao

Lin

2015

Habitat International

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a b s t r a c tThis article examines the impact of mega events on Beijing housing market from a behavioural perspective. By exploring the situation surrounding the Beijing 2008 Summer Olympics, we analyse the relationship between mega-event regeneration and expected residential relocation outcomes. Our findings suggest that Beijing Olympic regeneration caused disadvantaged groups to anticipate relocation to undesirable areas, as a result of improved infrastructure, public security, and urban environment. Behavioural sciences research indicates that expectation influences decision-making by serving as a salient reference point. Agents who perceived themselves as in a disadvantaged position or holding a gloomy prospect of their future are more likely to end up in such a situation. This paper offers insights into an effect of mega event regeneration projects that has been largely overlooked in the literature, i.e., the expected housing relocation outcomes. The research calls for government intervention and public attention to this important behavioural aspect of mega-event effects.

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Losses loom more likely than gains: Propensity to imagine losses increases their subjective probability

Cited by 67 publications

References 49 publications

Perceived Likelihood of Experiencing a Desirable versus Undesirable Outcome

Perceived Likelihood of Experiencing a Desirable versus Undesirable Outcome

Unrealistic comparative optimism: An unsuccessful search for evidence of a genuinely motivational bias

Behavioural insights into housing relocation decisions: The effects of the Beijing Olympics

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