Low autonomic arousal as a risk factor for reoffending: A population-based study

Abstract

Background Low resting heart rate (RHR) and low systolic blood pressure (SBP) are associated with criminal behavior. However, knowledge is lacking about their predictive value for reoffending. Aim We aimed to examine associations of RHR and SBP with reoffending in a large population-based sample. Methods We conducted a cohort study of all convicted male conscripts born in Sweden 1958–1990 (N = 407,533). We obtained data by linking Swedish population-based registers. Predictor variables were RHR and SBP, measured at conscription which was mandatory until 2010 for men at age 18. The outcome variable was reoffending, defined as criminal convictions (any crime, violent crime and non-violent crime), obtained from the National Crime Register. We used survival analyses to test for associations of RHR and SBP with reoffending, adjusting for pertinent covariates such as socioeconomic status, height, weight and physical energy capacity. Results In fully adjusted Cox regression models, men with lower RHR (≤60 bpm) had higher risk of reoffending (any crime: HR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.14, 1.19, violent crime: HR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.29, non-violent crime: HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.14, 1.19), compared to men with higher RHR (≥ 82 bpm). Men with lower SBP (≤80 mmHg) had higher risk of reoffending (any crime: HR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.21, violent crime: HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.20, non-violent crime: HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.18, 1.22), compared to men with higher SBP (≥138 mmHg). Conclusions Low autonomic arousal is associated with increased risk of reoffending. RHR and SBP should be investigated further as potential predictors for reoffending as they each may have predictive value in risk assessment protocols.

Lower autonomic arousal as a risk factor for criminal offending and unintentional injuries among female conscripts

“…This is a standard procedure for obtaining RHR and SBP in clinical settings in Sweden. In line with previous studies, [ 9 – 11 ], no woman was excluded due to extreme values for RHR (lower than 35 beats per minute [bpm] or higher than 145 bpm) or SBP (lower than 80 millimeter of mercury [mmHg] or higher than 160 mmHg.…”

“…A value for SBP was available for more than 99% of the sample (n = 12,491). In line with prior research [ 9 – 11 ], RHR and SBP were divided into quintiles, in line with previous research to account for the potential of non-linear relationships. In the present sample, RHR and SBP were weakly positively correlated, r (10672) = 0.26, p < .001.…”

“…Yet in comparison, little attention has been paid to the potential association between SBP and criminal offending. The few studies that have investigated the relationship between SBP and criminal offending have all shown similar associations as RHR and crime, i.e., a lower SBP has been linked to an increased likelihood of criminal offending [ 8 – 11 ].…”

Correlation of resting heart rate with a criminal sentence in young adult incarcerated criminal offenders

“…With only 8 effects for that moderator that easily could significantly skewed the results. Unequivocal support to the hypothesis of relation between criminal offence and low resting HR comes from two large cohort-based studies conducted in Sweden by Latvala, Kuja-Halkola, Almqvist, Larsson, Lichtenstein (2015) and Oskarsson et al (2021). Admittedly, their effects are not particularly strong, however their reliability and validity are unquestionable.…”

“…Typical indicators of violence or criminal offence are binomial in nature (present vs. absent) and thus cannot reflect whole range of subjects' hidden features that lead to violence or crime by influencing severity, frequency and threshold for such behaviour -a problem elegantly conceptualized by Pajevic (2020). Also indicators based on mere incidence of crime or violence fail to take situational or socio-economic causes of crime into consideration, thus diluting the relationship between psychological features and the behaviour itself -an effect seen in studies by Latvala, Kuja-Halkola, Almqvist, Larsson and Lichtenstein (2015) and Oskarsson et al (2021). On the other hand, quantitative measures are often based on self-report which can be heavily skewed by impression management or lack of criticism.…”