Low Carbon Scenario Analysis of a Hydrogen-Based Energy Transition for On-Road Transportation in California

Abstract

Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) are emerging as one of the prominent zero emission vehicle technologies. This study follows a deterministic modeling approach to project two scenarios of FCEV adoption and the resulting hydrogen demand (low and high) up to 2050 in California, using a transportation transition model. The study then estimates the number of hydrogen production and refueling facilities required to meet demand. The impact of system scale-up and learning rates on hydrogen price is evaluated using standalone supply chain models: H2A, HDSAM, HRSAM and HDRSAM. A sensitivity analysis explores key factors that affect hydrogen prices. In the high scenario, light and heavy-duty fuel cell vehicle stocks reach 12.5 million and 1 million by 2050, respectively. The resulting annual hydrogen demand is 3.9 billion kg, making hydrogen the dominant transportation fuel. Satisfying such high future demands will require rapid increases in infrastructure investments starting now, but especially after 2030 when there is an exponential increase in the number of production plants and refueling stations. In the long term, electrolytic hydrogen delivered using dedicated hydrogen pipelines to larger stations offers substantial cost savings. Feedstock prices, size of the hydrogen market and station utilization are the prominent parameters that affect hydrogen price.

Modeling future hydrogen supply chains in the western United States under uncertainties: an optimization-based approach focusing on California as a hydrogen hub

“…The production and technology options considered along each pathway are based on our understanding of the status of technology and its regional feasibility. 40 For production, we consider central production using steam methane reforming (SMR) with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and grid-connected proton-exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers. In one of the sensitivity cases, we also consider forecourt/on-site production (co-located alongside refueling stations) using PEM electrolyzers.…”

“…39 Hydrogen produced from Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) is as an eligible technology under SB 1505, but we do not consider that option in this study owing to the uncertainty of feedstock supply and the ability to scale. 40 The recently passed “Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Protocol” within the LCFS encourages fossil derived hydrogen production. However, a HSC overly dependent on fossil derived sources could be risky, owing to the possibility of methane leaks (if not adequately monitored) and the potential of CCS projects to elicit NIMBY (not under my backyard) reactions.…”

Hydrogen Storage Mechanism in Sodium-Based Graphene Nanoflakes: A Density Functional Theory Study

“…The establishment of appropriate transportation methods is an important factor when socially implementing hydrogen energy [13,14]. Carbon materials can safely store hydrogen [15,16]; in particular, lithium (Li)-doped graphene and carbon nanotubes (CNTs) have been used as effective storage materials [17,18].…”

Hydrogen Fuel for Future Mobility: Challenges and Future Aspects

“…When it comes to the direct use of hydrogen in mobility applications, light-dut FCEVs now receive the most consumer attention [71]. FCEVs, on the other hand, hav been used in material handling (mostly forklifts), buses, trains, and trucks [72][73][74]. When it comes to the direct use of hydrogen in mobility applications, light-duty FCEVs now receive the most consumer attention [71].…”

“…When it comes to the direct use of hydrogen in mobility applications, light-duty FCEVs now receive the most consumer attention [71]. FCEVs, on the other hand, have been used in material handling (mostly forklifts), buses, trains, and trucks [72][73][74].…”