Low incidence of COVID-19 in the West African sub-region: mitigating healthcare delivery system or a matter of time?

Abstract

Background This study examines the growth trends in the COVID-19 pandemic and fatalities arising from its complications among tested patients in West Africa. Countries around the world have employed several measures in order to control the spread of the disease. In spite of the poor state of the healthcare delivery system in West Africa, the spread of the pandemic is relatively low compared to reported cases in other regions of the world. The study addresses this phenomenon by asking the question: is the low incidence of COVID-19 in the West African sub-region a mitigating healthcare delivery system or just a matter of time? Methods The study adopted a cross-sectional time series method. Data for Ghana, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Senegal, Niger Republic, and global data were extracted from the World Health Organization COVID-19 databank. Data were extracted in intervals of 7 days from March 15 through April 19, 2020. Data regarding the incidence growth rate and fatalities arising from COVID-19 complications were generated from the total reported cases and fatalities over specified periods. Descriptive and inferential statistical analyses were carried out using Stata version 14. Results Results showed that the trends in growth patterns of COVID-19 for Senegal, Nigeria, Ghana, Republic of Niger, and West Africa generally followed the same fluctuating curves. The COVID-19 pandemic accounted for 92.3%, 97.8%, 90.3%, 65%, 90.4%, 93.6%, and 97% of complications that led to deaths of patients in Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Senegal, Ghana, Niger Republic, Ivory Coast, and West Africa, respectively. Also, the results established that there was a significant positive association between increased incidence of COVID-19 and percentage increase in fatalities arising from its complications in West Africa (ß = 0.032; t = 12.70; p < 0.001). Conclusion The threat presently posed by COVID-19 seems to be minimal in West Africa despite the poor state of the healthcare delivery system in the region. It is unlikely, however, that the region is well prepared for the pandemic in the event that it escalates out of control with time.

Epidemiological profile study of COVID-19 in West African countries: Nigeria, Senegal, Mauritania, Cape Verde and Mali

“…The case fatality rate of COVID-19 in West Africa was lower than in Africa and the world [27][28][29]. However, it was highly heterogeneous despite the similarity of health systems, which were characterized by inadequate financing, lack of modern and sophisticated health care facilities, inadequate or non-existent health insurance schemes, shortage of well-trained health personnel, chaotic implementation of health policies and poor access to essential services [2,30]. The causes of this variability presented in this study deserve further investigation.…”

“…It is the most devastating pandemic that humanity has experienced in the last ten decades [2]. In fact, no other pandemic has taken so many lives in the same time period [2].…”

“…Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly across all continents, and the number of confirmed cases and deaths has increased worldwide [1]. It is the most devastating pandemic that humanity has experienced in the last ten decades [2]. In fact, no other pandemic has taken so many lives in the same time period [2].…”

“…Despite the relatively low spread of COVID-19 in African countries [2], there was a marked increase in cases between December 2020 and January 2021 [12]. On average, 25,223 cases were reported daily between 28 December 2020 and 10 January 2021 in Africa, almost 39% higher than the peak of 18,104 daily cases averaged over two weeks in July 2020 [13].…”

COVID-19, Governance, and Conflict: Emerging Impacts and Future Evidence Needs

“…Some factors are said to have played a big role so far in reducing deaths (e.g., demographics, mobility within the country, early government responses), while other more speculative factors may also be contributing (e.g., prevalence of tuberculosis vaccinations, higher immunity through higher previous microbial load exposure, genetic factors, prior epidemic/pandemic experience, etc.) (Winning, 2020;Kumar & Chander, 2020;Bankole et al, 2020;Zeberg & Pääbo, 2020). Analysis suggests that risk factors can change over time (UNDP, 2020c), so it is not possible at present to say definitively whether or not specific countries/groups of countries are particularly vulnerable to the direct impacts of COVID-19.…”