Low-pressure systems and extreme precipitation in central India: sensitivity to temperature changes

Sørland, Silje Lund; Sorteberg, Asgeir

doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2850-4

Cited by 15 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…In the lower troposphere, an area of low geopotential height (Figure b) extends from Pakistan to Bangladesh following the Indo‐Gangetic Plain. This region of low geopotential height coincides with the location of LPS that form during the monsoon season and can influence the strength and direction of the moisture transport (Krishnamurthy & Ajayamohan, ; Sørland & Sorteberg, ).…”

Section: Atmospheric Circulation and Moisture Sources For Nepal Durinmentioning

confidence: 75%

“…Monsoon LPS are known to mainly develop in the Bay of Bengal and travel to the north or northwest where some of them recurve to the east (Krishnamurthy & Ajayamohan, 2010;Sørland & Sorteberg, 2015b;Tyagi et al, 2012). We tracked all LPS (section 3.2) that entered a target region around Nepal and were existing during an extreme event ( Figure 10).…”

Section: Variability Within the Cluster Compositesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Synoptic Conditions and Moisture Sources Actuating Extreme Precipitation in Nepal

2017

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Despite the vast literature on heavy‐precipitation events in South Asia, synoptic conditions and moisture sources related to extreme precipitation in Nepal have not been addressed systematically. We investigate two types of synoptic conditions—low‐pressure systems and midlevel troughs—and moisture sources related to extreme precipitation events. To account for the high spatial variability in rainfall, we cluster station‐based daily precipitation measurements resulting in three well‐separated geographic regions: west, central, and east Nepal. For each region, composite analysis of extreme events shows that atmospheric circulation is directed against the Himalayas during an extreme event. The direction of the flow is regulated by midtropospheric troughs and low‐pressure systems traveling toward the respective region. Extreme precipitation events feature anomalous high abundance of total column moisture. Quantitative Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic reveals that the largest direct contribution stems from land (approximately 75%), where, in particular, over the Indo‐Gangetic Plain moisture uptake was increased. Precipitation events occurring in this region before the extreme event likely provided additional moisture.

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Section: Atmospheric Circulation and Moisture Sources For Nepal Durinmentioning

confidence: 75%

Section: Variability Within the Cluster Compositesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synoptic Conditions and Moisture Sources Actuating Extreme Precipitation in Nepal

2017

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“…It is generally presumed that many of these heavy rainfall spells result from low-pressure systems (depressions and cyclones with a wind speed ≥ 8.5 m s −1 ) that develop in the Bay of Bengal, with typical time scales of 3–5 days, and move northwestward bringing moisture into the central Indian subcontinent 18 , 31 – 36 . Climate model simulations 33 , 37 suggest an increase in these low-pressure systems, bringing in more moisture in a warmer environment. On the contrary, observations indicate that the frequency of these depressions and cyclones has in fact declined 33 , 38 – 40 , raising some critical questions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India

et al. 2017

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Socioeconomic challenges continue to mount for half a billion residents of central India because of a decline in the total rainfall and a concurrent rise in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. Alongside a weakening monsoon circulation, the locally available moisture and the frequency of moisture-laden depressions from the Bay of Bengal have also declined. Here we show that despite these negative trends, there is a threefold increase in widespread extreme rain events over central India during 1950–2015. The rise in these events is due to an increasing variability of the low-level monsoon westerlies over the Arabian Sea, driving surges of moisture supply, leading to extreme rainfall episodes across the entire central subcontinent. The homogeneity of these severe weather events and their association with the ocean temperatures underscores the potential predictability of these events by two-to-three weeks, which offers hope in mitigating their catastrophic impact on life, agriculture and property.

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“…Im et al (2010) used the method to quantify the role of thermodynamic feedbacks over the Alpine region. A surrogate approach was also employed by Rasmussen et al (2011) to study the accelerated hydrological cycle over Colorado and by Sorland and Sorteberg (2015) to study monsoon low-pressure systems under climate change. This study will apply the SCC approach to systematically quantify the influence of individual large-scale drivers on projected changes of the European summer climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Separating climate change signals into thermodynamic, lapse-rate and circulation effects: theory and application to the European summer climate

et al. 2016

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first time in our study, leads to a stronger warming and some drying in southern Europe. It explains about 50 % of the warming amplification over the Iberian Peninsula, thus demonstrating the important role of lapse-rate changes. The effect is linked to an extending Hadley circulation. The CO effect as inherited from the driving GCM is shown to further amplify the north-south temperature change gradient. In terms of mean summer precipitation the TD effect leads to a significant overall increase in precipitation all across Europe, which is compensated and regionally reversed by the LR and CO effects in particular in southern Europe.

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Low-pressure systems and extreme precipitation in central India: sensitivity to temperature changes

Cited by 15 publications

References 36 publications

Synoptic Conditions and Moisture Sources Actuating Extreme Precipitation in Nepal

Synoptic Conditions and Moisture Sources Actuating Extreme Precipitation in Nepal

A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India

Separating climate change signals into thermodynamic, lapse-rate and circulation effects: theory and application to the European summer climate

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