Low probability of tropical cyclones on ocean planets in the habitable zones of M dwarfs

Bin, Jiayu; Tian, Feng; Wang, Danyang; Wang, Yuwei

doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2017.08.007

Cited by 28 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…When the maximum surface temperature is set to 301 K and the night-side surface temperature is set to 268 K, there are only two hurricane events during the integration of four earth years (Fig. 6e), consistent with the GPI prediction in Bin et al (2017). Note that the temperature of 301 K is close to the tropical surface temperatures on Earth.…”

Section: Effects Of Planetary Rotation Rate and Surface Temperaturesupporting

confidence: 72%

“…Another more quantitative way is the empirical equation of genesis potential index (GPI; Emanuel & Nolan 2004, Camargo et al 2007, Bin et a 2017. The index combines five environmental factors to predict the potential of hurricane formation, including planetary vorticity, relative vorticity, relative humidity, potential intensity, and wind shear.…”

Section: Hurricanes On Tidally Locked Planetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These AGCMs have horizontal resolutions that are always equal to or larger than 300 km, so that most of their studies focus on planetary-scale phenomena, such as global-scale Walker circulation, equatorial superrotation, and forced Rossby and Kelvin waves, and their models are not able to well simulate the characteristic features of hurricanes, such as the warm core, the eye-eyewall structure and the spiral rain bands. No work has investigated synoptic phenomena except Bin et al (2017). Based on the output data of an AGCM, they estimated genesis potential index of hurricanes and showed that the probability of hurricane formation is low for planets in the middle range of the habitable zone of M dwarfs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For planets near the inner edge of the habitable zone of late M dwarfs, there are more and stronger hurricanes on both day and night sides. For planets in the middle and outer ranges of the habitable zone, the possibility of hurricane formation is low or even close to zero, as suggested in the study of Bin et al (2017). Hurricane theories on Earth are applicable to tidally locked planets when atmospheric compositions are similar to Earth.…”

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confidence: 98%

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Hurricanes on tidally locked terrestrial planets: Fixed surface temperature experiments

Yan,

Yang

2020

Preprint

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Aims. Are there hurricanes on exoplanets? Tidally locked terrestrial planets around M dwarfs are the main targets of space missions for finding habitable exoplanets. Whether hurricanes can form on this kind of planet is important for their climate and habitability. Methods. Using a high-resolution global atmospheric circulation model, we investigate whether there are hurricanes on tidally locked terrestrial planets under fixed sea surface temperatures (SST). The effects of planetary rotation rate, surface temperature, and bulk atmospheric compositions are examined. Results. We find that hurricanes can form on the planets but not on all of them. For planets near the inner edge of the habitable zone of late M dwarfs, there are more and stronger hurricanes on both day and night sides. For planets in the middle and outer ranges of the habitable zone, the possibility of hurricane formation is low or even close to zero, as suggested in the study of Bin et al. (2017). Hurricane theories on Earth are applicable to tidally locked planets when atmospheric compositions are similar to Earth. However, if background atmosphere is lighter than H 2 O, hurricanes can hardly be produced because convection is always inhibited due to the effect of mean molecular weight, similar to that on Saturn. These results have broad implications on the precipitation, ocean mixing, climate, and atmospheric characterization of tidally locked planets. Finally, A test with a coupled slab ocean and an earth-like atmosphere in a tide-locked orbit of 10 earth days shows that there are also hurricanes in the experiment.

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Section: Effects Of Planetary Rotation Rate and Surface Temperaturesupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Hurricanes On Tidally Locked Planetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 98%

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Hurricanes on tidally locked terrestrial planets: Fixed surface temperature experiments

Yan,

Yang

2020

Preprint

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“…Large areas of warm ocean also provide favourable conditions for tropical cyclogenesis, assuming TRAPPIST-1e is tidally locked and rotates relatively fast around its axis (Bin et al 2018;Yan & Yang 2020;Komacek et al 2020). Indeed the planet's rotation period of 6.1 days and its radius and gravity being similar to that of Earth, together with a moderate instellation of ≈900 W m −2 and a low effective temperature of the host star (Table 1), all suggest relatively high occurrence of tropical cyclones, according to a combination of hurricane favorability metrics used by Komacek et al (2020).…”

Section: Habitability and Climate Stabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). Part II: Moist Cases -- The Two Waterworlds

Sergeev,

Fauchez,

Turbet

et al. 2021

Preprint

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To identify promising exoplanets for atmospheric characterization and to make the best use of observational data, a thorough understanding of their atmospheres is needed. 3D general circulation models (GCMs) are one of the most comprehensive tools available for this task and will be used to interpret observations of temperate rocky exoplanets. Due to various parameterization choices made in GCMs, they can produce different results, even for the same planet. Employing four widely-used exoplanetary GCMs -ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D and the UM -we continue the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison by modeling aquaplanet climates of TRAPPIST-1e with a moist atmosphere dominated by either nitrogen or carbon dioxide. Although the GCMs disagree on the details of the simulated regimes, they all predict a temperate climate with neither of the two cases pushed out of the habitable state. Nevertheless, the inter-model spread in the global mean surface temperature is non-negligible: 14 K and 24 K in the nitrogen and carbon dioxide dominated case, respectively. We find substantial inter-model differences in moist variables, with the smallest amount of clouds in LMD-Generic and the largest in ROCKE-3D. ExoCAM predicts the warmest climate for both cases and thus has the highest water vapor content, the largest amount and variability of cloud condensate. The UM tends to produce colder conditions, especially in the nitrogen-dominated case due to a strong negative cloud radiative effect on the day side of TRAPPIST-1e. Our study highlights various biases

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Climate Theory and Tropical Cyclone Risk Assessment

Walsh

2019

Hurricane Risk

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Low probability of tropical cyclones on ocean planets in the habitable zones of M dwarfs

Cited by 28 publications

References 27 publications

Hurricanes on tidally locked terrestrial planets: Fixed surface temperature experiments

Hurricanes on tidally locked terrestrial planets: Fixed surface temperature experiments

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). Part II: Moist Cases -- The Two Waterworlds

Climate Theory and Tropical Cyclone Risk Assessment

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