Low sea level rise projections from mountain glaciers and icecaps under global warming

Raper, S. C. B.; Braithwaite, Roger J.

doi:10.1038/nature04448

Cited by 287 publications

(262 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…In the next century, wastage of mountain glaciers and icecaps in response to anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase mean global sea levels by 0.051-0.124 m (Cazenave and Nerem, 2004;Raper and Braithwaite, 2006;Radić and Hock, 2011). In western North America, notable area and volume loss of glaciers (Larsen et al, 2007;Schiefer et al, 2007;Berthier et al, 2010;Bolch et al, 2010) and decreased late-summer flows in glacier-fed rivers (Stahl and Moore, 2006;Moore et al, 2009) have already been observed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An approach to derive regional snow lines and glacier mass change from MODIS imagery, western North America

et al. 2013

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Abstract. We describe a method to calculate regional snow line elevations and annual equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) from daily MODIS imagery (MOD02QKM) on large glaciers and icefields in western North America. An automated cluster analysis of the cloud-masked visible and near-infrared bands at 250 m resolution is used to delineate glacier facies (snow and ice) for ten glacierized regions between 2000-2011. For each region and season, the maximum observed value of the 20th percentile of snowcovered pixels (Z S(20) ) is used to define a regional ELA proxy (ELA est ). Our results indicate significant increases in the regional ELA proxy at two continental sites (Peyto Glacier and Gulkana Glacier) over the period of observation, though no statistically significant trends are identified at other sites. To evaluate the utility of regional ELA proxies derived from MOD02QKM imagery, we compare standard geodetic estimates of glacier mass change with estimates derived from historical mass balance gradients and observations of Z S(20) at three large icefields. Our approach yields estimates of mass change that more negative than traditional geodetic approaches, though MODIS-derived estimates are within the margins of error at all three sites. Both estimates of glacier mass change corroborate the continued mass loss of glaciers in western North America. Between 2000 and 2009, the geodetic change approach yields mean annual rates of surface elevation change for the Columbia, Lillooet, and Sittakanay icefields of −0.29 ± 0.05, −0.26 ± 0.05, and −0.63 ± 0.17 m a −1 , respectively. This study provides a new technique for glacier facies detection at daily timescales, and contributes to the development of regional estimates of glacier mass change, both of which are critical for studies of glacier contributions to streamflow and global sea level rise.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An approach to derive regional snow lines and glacier mass change from MODIS imagery, western North America

et al. 2013

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“…There is also no question that a globally complete and detailed glacier inventory is urgently required (e.g. GCOS, 2006;Cogley, 2009;Ohmura, 2009) for a wide range of purposes, among others the modeling of the past and future contribution of glaciers to global sea-level rise (Kaser et al, 2006;Raper & Braithwaite, 2006;Hock et al, 2009), estimation of water resources and hydrological modeling on a regional scale (Koboltsching et al, 2008Huss, 2011), as well as for accurate assessment of glacier changes (e.g. Paul et al, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Compilation of a glacier inventory for the western Himalayas from satellite data: methods, challenges, and results

Frey

Paul

Strozzi

2012

Remote Sensing of Environment

209

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Due to their sensitive reaction to changes in climatic conditions, glaciers have been selected as an essential climate variable (ECV). Although a large amount of ice is located in the Himalayas, this region is yet only sparsely represented in global glacier databases. Accordingly, a sound and comprehensive change assessment or determination of water resources was not yet possible. In this study, we present a new glacier inventory for the western Himalayas, compiled from Landsat ETM+ scenes acquired between 2000 and 2002, coherence images from ALOS PALSAR image pairs, the SRTM digital elevation model (DEM) and the ASTER Global DEM (GDEM). Several specific challenges for glacier mapping were found in this region and addressed. They are related to debris cover, orographic clouds, locally variable snow conditions, and creeping permafrost features in cold-dry regions. Additional to seven topographic parameters that are obtained from the ASTER GDEM for each glacier, we also determined the relative amount of debris cover on the glacier surface. The inventory contains 11,400 glaciers larger than 0.02 km2, which cover a total area of 9,310 km2. Analysis of the inventory data revealed characteristic patterns of mean glacier elevation and relative debris cover amounts that might be related to the governing climatic conditions. The full dataset will be freely available in the GLIMS glacier database to foster further analyses and modeling of the glaciers in this region. AbstractDue to their sensitive reaction to changes in climatic conditions, glaciers have been selected as an essential climate variable (ECV). Although a large amount of ice is located in the Himalayas, this region is yet only sparsely represented in global glacier databases. Accordingly, a sound and comprehensive change assessment or determination of water resources was not yet possible. In this study, we present a new glacier inventory for the western Himalayas, compiled from Landsat ETM+ scenes acquired between 2000 and 2002, coherence images from ALOS PALSAR image pairs, the SRTM digital elevation model (DEM) and the ASTER Global DEM (GDEM). Several specific challenges for glacier mapping were found in this region and addressed. They are related to debris cover, orographic clouds, locally variable snow conditions, and creeping permafrost features in cold-dry regions. Additional to seven topographic parameters that are obtained from the ASTER GDEM for each glacier, we also determined the relative amount of debris cover on the glacier surface. The inventory contains 11,400 glaciers larger than 0.02 km 2 , which cover a total area of 9,310 km 2 . Analysis of the inventory data revealed characteristic patterns of mean glacier elevation and relative debris cover amounts that might be related to the governing climatic conditions. The full dataset will be freely available in the GLIMS glacier database to foster further analyses and modeling of the glaciers in this region.

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“…This is supported by theoretical analyses by Bahr et al (1997). Additionally, the required mass balance changes may be obtained by using seasonal sensitivity characteristics (Oerlemans and Reichert, 2000), by modelling the changes in mass balance profiles (Raper and Braithwaite, 2006), by applying a simplified mass balance model (Radić and Hock, 2011), or by using a relation between mass balance sensitivity and precipitation (e.g. Gregory and Oerlemans, 1998;Van de Wal and Wild, 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…Bahr et al, 2009) or the equilibrium-line altitude (e.g. Raper and Braithwaite, 2006). The influence of the choice of temperature perturbation will be shown in Sect.…”

Section: Past Sea-level Contributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The figure also shows that the GIC in the larger size classes are still in the transition phase of adjusting to climate change. In the volume-area approach, GIC can only reach a new equilibrium by disappearing, unlike the methods of Raper and Braithwaite (2006) or Radić and Hock (2011), which can reach a new equilibrium over time. However, these methods require more information on the GICs hypsometry, which is not available for all glaciers.…”

Section: Scaling Factor Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An assessment of uncertainties in using volume-area modelling for computing the twenty-first century glacier contribution to sea-level change

Slangen

Wal

2011

The Cryosphere

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Abstract.A large part of present-day sea-level change is formed by the melt of glaciers and ice caps (GIC). This study focuses on the uncertainties in the calculation of the GIC contribution on a century timescale. The model used is based on volume-area scaling, combined with the mass balance sensitivity of the GIC. We assess different aspects that contribute to the uncertainty in the prediction of the contribution of GIC to future sea-level rise, such as (1) the volume-area scaling method (scaling factor), (2) the glacier data, (3) the climate models, and (4) the emission scenario. Additionally, a comparison of the model results to the 20th century GIC contribution is presented.We find that small variations in the scaling factor cause significant variations in the initial volume of the glaciers, but only limited variations in the glacier volume change. If two existing glacier inventories are tuned such that the initial volume is the same, the GIC sea-level contribution over 100 yr differs by 0.027 m or 18 %. It appears that the mass balance sensitivity is also important: variations of 20 % in the mass balance sensitivity have an impact of 17 % on the resulting sea-level projections. Another important factor is the choice of the climate model, as the GIC contribution to sea-level change largely depends on the temperature and precipitation taken from climate models. Connected to this is the choice of emission scenario, used to drive the climate models. Combining all the uncertainties examined in this study leads to a total uncertainty of 0.052 m or 35 % in the GIC contribution to global mean sea level. Reducing the variance in the climate models and improving the glacier inventories will sigCorrespondence to: A. B. A. Slangen (a.slangen@uu.nl) nificantly reduce the uncertainty in calculating the GIC contributions, and are therefore crucial actions to improve future sea-level projections.

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Low sea level rise projections from mountain glaciers and icecaps under global warming

Cited by 287 publications

References 12 publications

An approach to derive regional snow lines and glacier mass change from MODIS imagery, western North America

An approach to derive regional snow lines and glacier mass change from MODIS imagery, western North America

Compilation of a glacier inventory for the western Himalayas from satellite data: methods, challenges, and results

An assessment of uncertainties in using volume-area modelling for computing the twenty-first century glacier contribution to sea-level change

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