Objective: Intra-Individual Cognitive Variability (IICV) is an emerging clinical tool that has shown promise in predicting cognitive decline and dementia incidence. The present study aims to assess the predictive validity of IICV in remote cognitive screening tests, using nationally representative data. Method: Two waves of cognitive and diagnostic data from the Health and Retirement Study (collected in 2010 and 2012) were utilized to investigate whether baseline IICV can predict cognitive decline and dementia pathology. Middle-aged and older adults who were cognitively intact and completed all cognitive tests at both baseline and follow-up were recruited in the study, resulting in a sample of 6,050 participants. With the coefficient of variation method, the IICV-dispersion was calculated based on cognitive screeners to predict follow-up mean cognitive performance, global cognition, suspected cognitive impairment, and self-reported dementia diagnosis. Results: After accounting for demographics, depressive symptoms, and baseline cognitive performance, the results provide support for the predictive validity of IICV. Specifically, the study demonstrated that IICV-dispersion significantly predicted cognitive and diagnostic outcomes in a concave pattern where the prediction was more sensitive toward the higher end of IICV. IICV explained about 0.2%-2.3% of the variance of outcomes variables. Conclusions: IICV retrieved from cognitive screening tests in telemedicine settings offers insight into future cognitive functioning and neurocognitive diagnostic status, which can be costeffective and reduce the burden on both patients and health care providers, especially benefitting individuals with low socioeconomic status and rural residents. Potential avenues for future research were also discussed.
Key PointsQuestion: Does Intra-Individual Cognitive Variability (IICV) based on virtual cognitive screening tests predict follow-up cognitive decline, dementia diagnosis, and suspected mild cognitive impairment? Findings: Baseline IICV-dispersion significantly predicted cognitive and diagnostic outcomes 2 years later within the context of baseline cognitive performance, demographics, and depressive symptoms. Importance: The present study lends support to the use of IICV in clinical settings and provides initial evidence for the application of IICV within teleneuropsychology. Next Steps: Future directions include establishing normative comparison data, exploring the potential moderating effect of demographic factors in more diverse samples, examining the impact of intersectional identities and multiple cognitive risk factors, and investigating longitudinal cognitive decline across multiple time points.