Prenatal environmental exposures are among the risk factors being
explored for associations with autism. We applied a new procedure combining
multiple scan cluster detection tests to identify geographically defined areas
of increased autism incidence. This procedure can serve as a first
hypothesis-generating step aimed at localized environmental exposures, but would
not be useful for assessing widely distributed exposures, such as household
products, nor for exposures from non-point sources, such as traffic.
Geocoded mothers' residences on 2,453,717 California birth
records, 1996–2000, were analyzed including 9,900 autism cases recorded
in the California Department of Developmental Services (DDS) database through
February 2006 which were matched to their corresponding birth records. We
analyzed each of the 21 DDS Regional Center (RC) catchment areas separately
because of wide variation in diagnostic practices. Ten clusters of increased
autism risk were identified in eight RC regions, and one potential cluster in
each of two other RC regions.
After determination of clusters, multiple mixed Poisson regression models
were fit to assess differences in known demographic autism risk factors between
births within and outside areas of elevated autism incidence, independent of
case status.
Adjusted for other covariates, the majority of areas of autism clustering
were characterized by high parental education, e.g., relative risks >4
for collegegraduate versus non-high school graduate parents. This geographic
association possibly occurs because RCs do not actively conduct case finding and
parents with lower education are, for various reasons, less likely to
successfully seek services.