Background Lutetium-177 (¹⁷⁷Lu) prostate-specific membrane antigen (¹⁷⁷Lu-PSMA) is a novel targeted treatment for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Predictors of outcomes after ¹⁷⁷Lu-PSMA to enhance its clinical implementation are yet to be identified. We aimed to develop nomograms to predict outcomes after ¹⁷⁷Lu-PSMA in patients with mCRPC.
MethodsIn this multicentre, retrospective study, we screened patients with mCRPC who had received ¹⁷⁷Lu-PSMA between Dec 10, 2014, and July 19, 2019, as part of the previous phase 2 trials (NCT03042312, ACTRN12615000912583) or compassionate access programmes at six hospitals and academic centres in Germany, the USA, and Australia. Eligible patients had received intravenous 6•0-8•5 GBq ¹⁷⁷Lu-PSMA once every 6-8 weeks, for a maximum of four to six cycles, and had available baseline [⁶⁸Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT scan, clinical data, and survival outcomes. Putative predictors included 18 pretherapeutic clinicopathological and [⁶⁸Ga]Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT variables. Data were collected locally and centralised. Primary outcomes for the nomograms were overall survival and prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-progression-free survival. Nomograms for each outcome were computed from Cox regression models with LASSO penalty for variable selection. Model performance was measured by examining discrimination (Harrell's C-index), calibration (calibration plots), and utility (patient stratification into low-risk vs high-risk groups). Models were validated internally using bootstrapping and externally by calculating their performance on a validation cohort.